{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ba15067-46fa-43a5-939f-8f7c2a63ea82", "symbol": "300053", "name": "Zhuhai Aerospace Microchips Science & Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.973, "architecture_energy": 80.823, "architecture_maturity": 33.801, "architecture_confidence": 87.175, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 8.67, "upward_expansion": 19.47, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 72.87, "downward_expansion": 90.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.688, 13.855636, 15.357762, 16.242946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.26, "trend_reference": 17.621667, "distance_from_trend": -0.247517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.548846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.673959, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.422222, "excess_performance": -0.429622, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.247517, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026409, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021319, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.51347, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259778, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.422222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418651, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116287070, "relative_activity": 0.941179, "balance": 0.418651, "dry_up": 0.882652, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151062, "annualized_volatility": 0.6132, "from_high_reference": -0.487239, "from_low_reference": 0.214286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.621667, "fair_value_reference": 13.548846, "structural_low": 10.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.021951, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": 0.010763, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.225917, "worst_return": -0.233533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.122189, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.037796, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.218543, "worst_return": -0.134744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.112147, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.128847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.931126, "worst_return": -0.013363, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130841, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007603, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.534983, "worst_return": -0.007795, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.441836, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132361, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010699, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060938, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109215, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028951, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110946, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064147, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071549, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024941, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117764, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 12.56, "volume": 86476210, "typical_volume": 219002319.55, "trend": 11.138667, "fair_value": 9.716218, "relative_strength": 29.904387, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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132840475, "typical_volume": 134648712.3, "trend": 18.237667, "fair_value": 13.576859, "relative_strength": -26.066624, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.064247, "energy": 67.205017, "activity_lines": [ 14.966666, 15.716727, 16.646238, 17.354559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.52, "volume": 99241565, "typical_volume": 129808620.15, "trend": 18.018667, "fair_value": 13.562756, "relative_strength": -29.968115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.336516, "energy": 77.124542, "activity_lines": [ 13.67, 14.832909, 16.113286, 16.921161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.06, "volume": 87854029, "typical_volume": 127749124.8, "trend": 17.813667, "fair_value": 13.546474, "relative_strength": -25.280368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.090894, "energy": 82.191181, "activity_lines": [ 12.88, 14.183454, 15.665381, 16.536731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.26, "volume": 116287070, "typical_volume": 123554648.2, "trend": 17.621667, "fair_value": 13.548846, "relative_strength": -21.673959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.972993, "energy": 80.82339, "activity_lines": [ 12.688, 13.855636, 15.357762, 16.242946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }