{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ba5c07e-7e9a-46c9-85ea-4189e38e100f", "symbol": "CPIX", "name": "Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.674, "architecture_energy": 46.369, "architecture_maturity": 28.798, "architecture_confidence": 69.518, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.0, "rotation_up": 51.95, "upward_expansion": 71.21, "deceleration": 65.95, "rotation_down": 18.29, "downward_expansion": 4.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.248455, 5.963918, 5.628014, 5.158366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.8, "trend_reference": 4.665191, "distance_from_trend": 0.671957, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.968206, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.62785, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 71.715612, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.994885, "excess_performance": 0.807431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.671957, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245989, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.62785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.836614, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.717156, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.639793, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.994885, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.431882, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 900559, "relative_activity": 0.278198, "balance": 2.431882, "dry_up": 0.243643, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156448, "annualized_volatility": 1.020113, "from_high_reference": -0.052248, "from_low_reference": 3.216216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.665191, "fair_value_reference": 2.968206, "structural_low": 2.69, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037737, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011761, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.238298, "worst_return": -0.274359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.261084, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.187931, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.505128, "worst_return": -0.296407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.235303, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.335179, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.150246, "worst_return": -0.320359, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.210775, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.310553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.182635, "worst_return": -0.238916, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.228125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046218, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.823276, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157635, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.242308, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.191693, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122449, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165591, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.212821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.280757, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073394, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103249, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.378586, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.66, "volume": 158496, "typical_volume": 129644.15, "trend": 1.872323, "fair_value": 2.683627, "relative_strength": -32.957213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.931013, "energy": 20.708426, "activity_lines": [ 5.464971, 5.614457, 5.267792, 4.885027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.525622, "volume": 395522, "typical_volume": 3214927.95, "trend": 4.570191, "fair_value": 2.929232, "relative_strength": 29.886872, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.132194, "energy": 17.735125, "activity_lines": [ 5.436837, 5.579295, 5.345517, 4.949991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.8, "volume": 900559, "typical_volume": 3237112.35, "trend": 4.665191, "fair_value": 2.968206, "relative_strength": 71.715612, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.673943, "energy": 46.368768, "activity_lines": [ 6.248455, 5.963918, 5.628014, 5.158366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }