{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ba95a25-fb1a-4068-b8c2-65f03d88b781", "symbol": "603586", "name": "Shandong Gold Phoenix Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.793, "architecture_energy": 62.39, "architecture_maturity": 28.935, "architecture_confidence": 92.724, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 18.13, "upward_expansion": 11.97, "deceleration": 45.16, "rotation_down": 63.26, "downward_expansion": 85.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.838, 13.240364, 14.623463, 15.426324 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.39, "trend_reference": 16.46346, "distance_from_trend": -0.186684, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.883101, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100322, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.58805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.274432, "excess_performance": -0.231228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186684, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075006, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100322, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215775, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063056, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274432, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58867, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8487150, "relative_activity": 0.60521, "balance": 0.58867, "dry_up": 0.633796, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111606, "annualized_volatility": 0.505973, "from_high_reference": -0.427492, "from_low_reference": 0.144444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.46346, "fair_value_reference": 14.883101, "structural_low": 11.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.026093, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.025186, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.173242, "worst_return": -0.124269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038905, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009344, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.371841, "worst_return": -0.075653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.101306, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.319495, "worst_return": 0.023952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000592, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.113455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110264, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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14.901281, "relative_strength": -29.512986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.528053, "energy": 86.360529, "activity_lines": [ 12.548, 13.785091, 15.145062, 15.888827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.9, "volume": 7957800, "typical_volume": 13984715.8, "trend": 16.636496, "fair_value": 14.88758, "relative_strength": -23.789197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.340231, "energy": 79.182423, "activity_lines": [ 12.629333, 13.434909, 14.849976, 15.635776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.39, "volume": 8487150, "typical_volume": 14023488.4, "trend": 16.46346, "fair_value": 14.883101, "relative_strength": -22.58805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.79274, "energy": 62.389818, "activity_lines": [ 12.838, 13.240364, 14.623463, 15.426324 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }