{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0baeaed5-dd9e-4bc6-9033-8962f361a50d", "symbol": "BAM", "name": "Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.872, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 45.768, "architecture_energy": 51.672, "architecture_maturity": 34.851, "architecture_confidence": 54.872, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.45, "rotation_up": 61.95, "upward_expansion": 54.62, "deceleration": 27.99, "rotation_down": 23.31, "downward_expansion": 22.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.232, 48.009455, 47.583945, 47.190822 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.49, "trend_reference": 47.261288, "distance_from_trend": 0.110634, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.200471, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161271, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.891935, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080483, "excess_performance": -0.045142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110634, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028813, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161271, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033955, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094968, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080483, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.654553, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17424515, "relative_activity": 1.170729, "balance": 1.654553, "dry_up": 0.831799, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056184, "annualized_volatility": 0.311469, "from_high_reference": -0.140911, "from_low_reference": 0.2567 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.261288, "fair_value_reference": 45.200471, "structural_low": 41.768138, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.048525, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.019687, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.143324, "worst_return": -0.008699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.085654, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.070494, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.419221, "worst_return": 0.061547, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.262083, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.124884, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.540782, "worst_return": -0.016617, 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11796661, "typical_volume": 16752491.15, "trend": 47.693265, "fair_value": 44.729868, "relative_strength": -17.676905, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.171891, "energy": 21.381261, "activity_lines": [ 46.196667, 46.610518, 46.586034, 46.829527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.33, "volume": 10574389, "typical_volume": 16202132.5, "trend": 47.600713, "fair_value": 44.844548, "relative_strength": -12.849571, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.756037, "energy": 7.508199, "activity_lines": [ 46.854667, 46.839975, 46.798116, 46.870606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.35, "volume": 11370796, "typical_volume": 15687517.5, "trend": 47.403643, "fair_value": 44.946362, "relative_strength": -15.190103, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.191353, "energy": 9.200382, "activity_lines": [ 46.772667, 46.726173, 46.811825, 46.789915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.4, "volume": 10150539, "typical_volume": 15001553.3, "trend": 47.272296, "fair_value": 45.066742, "relative_strength": -11.73401, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.029085, "energy": 12.218016, "activity_lines": [ 47.446667, 47.004727, 47.017193, 46.854196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.49, "volume": 17424515, "typical_volume": 14883480.35, "trend": 47.261288, "fair_value": 45.200471, "relative_strength": -6.891935, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.76846, "energy": 51.671572, "activity_lines": [ 49.232, 48.009455, 47.583945, 47.190822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }