{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0bbb4b66-d5ba-4bac-9d38-2659c68f3702", "symbol": "9918", "name": "Shin Shin Natural Gas Company Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.143, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.849, "architecture_energy": 17.131, "architecture_maturity": 2.517, "architecture_confidence": 74.888, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.64, "rotation_up": 40.59, "upward_expansion": 39.78, "deceleration": 37.72, "rotation_down": 22.36, "downward_expansion": 14.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.62839, 42.46558, 42.271215, 42.50416 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.549999, "trend_reference": 42.276839, "distance_from_trend": 0.006461, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.209933, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113585, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.120302, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.11994, "excess_performance": -0.321432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006461, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031935, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113585, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013089, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251203, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038322, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11994, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.30686, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 277539, "relative_activity": 0.482859, "balance": 1.30686, "dry_up": 0.359329, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03664, "annualized_volatility": 0.519708, "from_high_reference": -0.281083, "from_low_reference": 0.129991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.276839, "fair_value_reference": 38.209933, "structural_low": 37.896552, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003559, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009456, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.041931, "worst_return": -0.021978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.011891, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.019054, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.171285, "worst_return": -0.015931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02442, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.105959, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.09068, "worst_return": -0.013665, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.44095, "energy": 21.644807, "activity_lines": [ 42.633447, 42.347272, 42.3111, 42.407274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.5, "volume": 179942, "typical_volume": 1326107.65, "trend": 42.000517, "fair_value": 38.135412, "relative_strength": -22.186835, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.353382, "energy": 20.546916, "activity_lines": [ 42.681149, 42.396959, 42.282175, 42.448465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.450001, "volume": 138083, "typical_volume": 908106.65, "trend": 42.136207, "fair_value": 38.171205, "relative_strength": -23.434311, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.646103, "energy": 20.845563, "activity_lines": [ 42.65954, 42.429341, 42.265648, 42.477464 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 42.549999, "volume": 277539, "typical_volume": 574783.1, "trend": 42.276839, "fair_value": 38.209933, "relative_strength": -25.120302, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.848985, "energy": 17.13116, "activity_lines": [ 42.62839, 42.46558, 42.271215, 42.50416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }