{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0bbcb9dd-4001-4886-ad29-571d08821b2c",
    "symbol": "BHP",
    "name": "BHP Group Limited",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 64.845,
    "architecture_energy": 34.827,
    "architecture_maturity": 32.668,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.885,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 37.49,
        "rotation_up": 47.22,
        "upward_expansion": 74.04,
        "deceleration": 66.66,
        "rotation_down": 22.0,
        "downward_expansion": 3.04
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        85.608667,
        84.682364,
        84.214,
        81.839499
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 90.41,
    "trend_reference": 78.22007,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.155841,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 56.627128,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.596585,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 18.601782,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.324629,
    "excess_performance": 0.199004,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.155841,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.133787,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.596585,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.023763,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.186018,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.092625,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.324629,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.014574,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 13330117,
      "relative_activity": 1.034142,
      "balance": 1.014574,
      "dry_up": 0.970352,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.074845,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.371293,
      "from_high_reference": -0.036449,
      "from_low_reference": 0.790568
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 78.22007,
      "fair_value_reference": 56.627128,
      "structural_low": 64.53,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.008513,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.454545,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019372,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.27352,
        "worst_return": -0.193294,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.032481,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000758,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.490407,
        "worst_return": -0.081846,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.005867,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012051,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.657531,
        "worst_return": -0.093876,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.123619,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015085,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.271313,
        "worst_return": -0.024075,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021332,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.092606,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.094248,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028556,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.097887,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.051277,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.057164,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.031083,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.04651,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.089713,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.195419,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "return": 0.098443,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.023302,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "return": 0.121156,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 83.72,
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        "typical_volume": 13782258.5,
        "trend": 76.424098,
        "fair_value": 56.166748,
        "relative_strength": 16.530258,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 32.399724,
        "energy": 17.872617,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 84.49,
        "volume": 11971710,
        "typical_volume": 13290860.4,
        "trend": 77.222764,
        "fair_value": 56.375379,
        "relative_strength": 15.550001,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.066005,
        "energy": 16.234838,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 90.41,
        "volume": 13330117,
        "typical_volume": 12890023.6,
        "trend": 78.22007,
        "fair_value": 56.627128,
        "relative_strength": 18.601782,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.844544,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}