{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0bc3d886-dc88-4851-b5d7-23d0831bfea3", "symbol": "688248", "name": "China Southern Power Grid Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.853, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.412, "architecture_energy": 70.327, "architecture_maturity": 11.846, "architecture_confidence": 76.059, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.01, "rotation_up": 11.02, "upward_expansion": 17.62, "deceleration": 34.54, "rotation_down": 70.68, "downward_expansion": 86.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.638892, 49.341694, 52.828013, 54.404908 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 48.540001, "trend_reference": 55.352532, "distance_from_trend": -0.123075, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.513014, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329389, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.153345, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.06582, "excess_performance": -0.022616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123075, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034175, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.430081, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051533, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06582, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.093243, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31223851, "relative_activity": 1.262676, "balance": 1.093243, "dry_up": 1.344877, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.181545, "annualized_volatility": 0.912117, "from_high_reference": -0.3528, "from_low_reference": 0.483813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.352532, "fair_value_reference": 36.513014, "structural_low": 37.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.012999, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.008353, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.398895, "worst_return": -0.153574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.194356, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.021556, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.253419, "worst_return": -0.216959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.206037, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.074582, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.927665, "worst_return": -0.315789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 41.52, "volume": 38403824, "typical_volume": 27344585.8, "trend": 55.331865, "fair_value": 36.387586, "relative_strength": -15.624037, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.928988, "energy": 53.073045, "activity_lines": [ 48.798489, 52.339728, 54.976831, 55.702826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.900002, "volume": 25112463, "typical_volume": 25048016.9, "trend": 55.225865, "fair_value": 36.417451, "relative_strength": -15.450993, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.711666, "energy": 72.029966, "activity_lines": [ 44.813995, 50.061983, 53.518851, 54.836254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.540001, "volume": 31223851, "typical_volume": 24728317.45, "trend": 55.352532, "fair_value": 36.513014, "relative_strength": -5.153345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.411511, "energy": 70.327081, "activity_lines": [ 44.638892, 49.341694, 52.828013, 54.404908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }