{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0bc430eb-6aca-4d6d-b9c4-da579fd05505", "symbol": "002602", "name": "Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.688, "architecture_energy": 44.25, "architecture_maturity": 72.366, "architecture_confidence": 86.503, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.78, "rotation_up": 24.98, "upward_expansion": 6.32, "deceleration": 59.02, "rotation_down": 47.69, "downward_expansion": 77.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.352667, 13.430364, 14.055836, 14.837753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.77, "trend_reference": 16.058057, "distance_from_trend": -0.142487, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.225013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.492681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.317091, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.300299, "excess_performance": -0.307699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142487, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071745, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.492681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.350548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.300299, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.709047, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 583918611, "relative_activity": 1.100861, "balance": 0.709047, "dry_up": 1.373802, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093142, "annualized_volatility": 0.320841, "from_high_reference": -0.385234, "from_low_reference": 0.1475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.058057, "fair_value_reference": 9.225013, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.03529, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037389, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.353053, "worst_return": -0.268817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.067413, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038499, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.711689, "worst_return": -0.268817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.039338, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.047838, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.766756, "worst_return": -0.427035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"trend": 16.282435, "fair_value": 9.129497, "relative_strength": -25.956784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.676301, "energy": 58.054681, "activity_lines": [ 13.120667, 13.460392, 14.305466, 15.169227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.54, "volume": 756464861, "typical_volume": 526035417.55, "trend": 16.165417, "fair_value": 9.17339, "relative_strength": -17.693594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.434812, "energy": 48.367398, "activity_lines": [ 13.194, 13.417091, 14.162099, 14.992296 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.77, "volume": 583918611, "typical_volume": 530420094.55, "trend": 16.058057, "fair_value": 9.225013, "relative_strength": -20.317091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.687755, "energy": 44.249681, "activity_lines": [ 13.352667, 13.430364, 14.055836, 14.837753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }