{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0bcaf42f-94ab-4b4f-a30a-55393301af40", "symbol": "BDIV", "name": "Brompton Global Dividend Growth ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.745, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.004, "architecture_energy": 31.679, "architecture_maturity": 62.052, "architecture_confidence": 79.242, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.43, "rotation_up": 30.39, "upward_expansion": 61.32, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 34.14, "downward_expansion": 20.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.207938, 25.352372, 25.263925, 24.945908 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.5, "trend_reference": 24.562893, "distance_from_trend": 0.038151, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.242184, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.259746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.758549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057638, "excess_performance": -0.062783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038151, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030049, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.259746, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02955, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020332, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057638, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.262411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1500, "relative_activity": 0.555556, "balance": 1.262411, "dry_up": 1.074074, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01634, "annualized_volatility": 0.133531, "from_high_reference": -0.022664, "from_low_reference": 0.177336 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.562893, "fair_value_reference": 20.242184, "structural_low": 22.458231, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011977, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.02073, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.049491, "worst_return": -0.024042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02496, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.007637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099789, "worst_return": -0.05825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097099, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.038859, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1467, "worst_return": 0.044361, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.108024, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044788, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150463, "worst_return": -0.105756, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013729, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.201859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014058, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030385, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049491, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030337, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047666, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020511, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.072745, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03924, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017053, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022454, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.684761, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": 2010.0, "trend": 14.531666, "fair_value": 14.664272, "relative_strength": 3.3213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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24.337688, "fair_value": 19.983099, "relative_strength": -1.660105, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.87392, "energy": 83.358963, "activity_lines": [ 25.735623, 25.585278, 25.111144, 24.765999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.028822, "volume": 4800, "typical_volume": 3250.0, "trend": 24.398734, "fair_value": 20.046846, "relative_strength": -4.205015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.552467, "energy": 50.74123, "activity_lines": [ 25.513641, 25.508465, 25.14777, 24.810588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.008934, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 2800.0, "trend": 24.449096, "fair_value": 20.110364, "relative_strength": -4.351024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.673563, "energy": 35.005994, "activity_lines": [ 25.315602, 25.426893, 25.180155, 24.849956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.940001, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 2810.0, "trend": 24.503646, "fair_value": 20.174612, "relative_strength": -3.999005, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.444322, "energy": 27.700444, "activity_lines": [ 25.145059, 25.335067, 25.199266, 24.881627 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.5, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 2700.0, "trend": 24.562893, "fair_value": 20.242184, "relative_strength": -4.758549, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.004472, "energy": 31.678511, "activity_lines": [ 25.207938, 25.352372, 25.263925, 24.945908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }