{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0bd87e49-073b-4ee5-b2e8-4e859c9f8d65", "symbol": "ACAITA", "name": "AcomeA PMItalia Q2", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.438, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.697, "architecture_energy": 61.864, "architecture_maturity": 50.495, "architecture_confidence": 64.835, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.26, "rotation_up": 52.98, "upward_expansion": 81.03, "deceleration": 63.5, "rotation_down": 27.91, "downward_expansion": 10.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.797333, 37.686, 37.243395, 36.643479 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.381001, "trend_reference": 36.1059, "distance_from_trend": 0.063012, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.048404, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236167, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.163278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.074737, "excess_performance": -0.096155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063012, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032953, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05392, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00519, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074737, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.598253, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 411, "relative_activity": 7.486339, "balance": 0.598253, "dry_up": 5.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016354, "annualized_volatility": 0.160591, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.195372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.1059, "fair_value_reference": 31.048404, "structural_low": 32.108002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.022753, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.003587, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.0759, "worst_return": -0.068451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032182, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.019461, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.0785, "worst_return": -0.082902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.086521, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.015905, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.100255, "worst_return": -0.176912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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-7.213669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.471322, "energy": 57.824562, "activity_lines": [ 37.546399, 37.429327, 36.577786, 36.164864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.645, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 35.845633, "fair_value": 30.909769, "relative_strength": -5.209168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.007998, "energy": 57.950107, "activity_lines": [ 37.5634, 37.512363, 36.751524, 36.287529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.411999, "volume": 687, "typical_volume": 34.35, "trend": 35.9364, "fair_value": 30.951936, "relative_strength": -5.493782, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.067936, "energy": 53.690502, "activity_lines": [ 37.519399, 37.523945, 36.896247, 36.388585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.523998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.35, "trend": 36.017733, "fair_value": 30.998135, "relative_strength": -5.711559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.031137, "energy": 48.749066, "activity_lines": [ 37.540399, 37.53329, 37.0383, 36.491011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.381001, "volume": 411, "typical_volume": 54.9, "trend": 36.1059, "fair_value": 31.048404, "relative_strength": -6.163278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.697145, "energy": 61.864337, "activity_lines": [ 37.797333, 37.686, 37.243395, 36.643479 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }