{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0bd958d3-c51f-41f1-b361-e4f1a1138817", "symbol": "6418", "name": "Y-S Electronic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.928, "architecture_energy": 21.662, "architecture_maturity": 19.795, "architecture_confidence": 93.999, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.7, "rotation_up": 22.32, "upward_expansion": 6.48, "deceleration": 41.7, "rotation_down": 44.01, "downward_expansion": 72.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.776666, 31.137273, 31.320652, 31.350236 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.15, "trend_reference": 31.86483, "distance_from_trend": -0.022433, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.459728, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.177261, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.266539, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014808, "excess_performance": -0.45618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022433, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124802, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.177261, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001021, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.462665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014808, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.831921, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 485065, "relative_activity": 0.488259, "balance": 0.831921, "dry_up": 0.426918, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133338, "annualized_volatility": 0.569654, "from_high_reference": -0.605923, "from_low_reference": 0.335853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.86483, "fair_value_reference": 26.459728, "structural_low": 26.677864, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.00597, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.003133, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.224615, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.034056, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.08303, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 3.615385, "worst_return": -0.148079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.080698, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.091096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.931943, "worst_return": -0.052256, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.553938, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.049268, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.557049, "worst_return": -0.116416, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071264, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184953, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119827, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.532609, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143956, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010496, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015798, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 20.130316, "volume": 13883000, "typical_volume": 1543400.0, "trend": 15.350749, "fair_value": 13.986986, "relative_strength": 25.100019, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"typical_volume": 1029588.65, "trend": 32.509935, "fair_value": 26.24403, "relative_strength": -47.011623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.953496, "energy": 30.007433, "activity_lines": [ 30.45, 31.09964, 31.235837, 31.447752 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.049999, "volume": 399416, "typical_volume": 1020104.45, "trend": 32.201559, "fair_value": 26.355476, "relative_strength": -42.97029, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.720069, "energy": 22.42875, "activity_lines": [ 30.683333, 31.226207, 31.324835, 31.418079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 31.15, "volume": 485065, "typical_volume": 993457.55, "trend": 31.86483, "fair_value": 26.459728, "relative_strength": -46.266539, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.927879, "energy": 21.66172, "activity_lines": [ 30.776666, 31.137273, 31.320652, 31.350236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }