{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0bdaa91e-3747-408f-88a6-069526e0d0a2", "symbol": "CDMIL", "name": "CodeMill AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.916, "architecture_energy": 60.254, "architecture_maturity": 11.353, "architecture_confidence": 81.106, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.22, "rotation_up": 10.64, "upward_expansion": 12.29, "deceleration": 37.83, "rotation_down": 69.59, "downward_expansion": 87.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.11, 14.442727, 14.800238, 14.898172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.7, "trend_reference": 15.086667, "distance_from_trend": -0.091913, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.664535, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002595, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.291484, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.124601, "excess_performance": -0.186095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091913, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016301, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002595, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080787, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124601, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.426917, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7723, "relative_activity": 0.992782, "balance": 2.426917, "dry_up": 0.875899, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085065, "annualized_volatility": 0.296166, "from_high_reference": -0.315, "from_low_reference": 0.136929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.086667, "fair_value_reference": 13.664535, "structural_low": 12.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.009901, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.020604, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.177083, "worst_return": -0.113095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.27, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.295933, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.345238, "worst_return": -0.006452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.105638, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.143477, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.69, "worst_return": 0.029032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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15.18129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.3, "volume": 7544, "typical_volume": 7880.25, "trend": 15.205, "fair_value": 13.492782, "relative_strength": -14.887953, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.822582, "energy": 31.175471, "activity_lines": [ 14.8, 14.994545, 15.080476, 15.12086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.0, "volume": 4191, "typical_volume": 7242.05, "trend": 15.158333, "fair_value": 13.549199, "relative_strength": -17.279962, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.183927, "energy": 37.141231, "activity_lines": [ 14.5, 14.773636, 14.976905, 15.043118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.35, "volume": 7797, "typical_volume": 7494.75, "trend": 15.138333, "fair_value": 13.61004, "relative_strength": -15.660141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.300983, "energy": 39.531273, "activity_lines": [ 14.393333, 14.656364, 14.915952, 14.990968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.7, "volume": 7723, "typical_volume": 7779.15, "trend": 15.086667, "fair_value": 13.664535, "relative_strength": -20.291484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.915751, "energy": 60.253763, "activity_lines": [ 14.11, 14.442727, 14.800238, 14.898172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }