{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0bdee118-1bfe-4433-a024-847e71204f7b", "symbol": "600229", "name": "Qingdao Citymedia Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.037, "architecture_energy": 46.82, "architecture_maturity": 91.584, "architecture_confidence": 86.417, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 25.76, "upward_expansion": 7.39, "deceleration": 60.76, "rotation_down": 47.48, "downward_expansion": 78.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.905333, 4.928545, 5.264143, 5.516043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.01, "trend_reference": 5.865667, "distance_from_trend": -0.145877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.755153, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258344, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.223133, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.257778, "excess_performance": -0.214574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084777, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258344, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052332, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.563537, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21234780, "relative_activity": 0.893062, "balance": 0.563537, "dry_up": 1.113635, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089974, "annualized_volatility": 0.410241, "from_high_reference": -0.340789, "from_low_reference": 0.093886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.865667, "fair_value_reference": 6.755153, "structural_low": 4.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.030513, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.014108, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.175806, "worst_return": -0.221325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.067911, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.041751, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.241935, "worst_return": -0.168111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032171, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.013382, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.253097, "worst_return": -0.254658, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 4.905333, 4.928545, 5.264143, 5.516043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }