{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0be9ca70-3942-4b71-958d-5574d33e0ca7", "symbol": "SPLW", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility UCITS ETF Accumulation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.623, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.154, "architecture_energy": 54.532, "architecture_maturity": 42.251, "architecture_confidence": 56.449, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.59, "rotation_up": 62.95, "upward_expansion": 81.75, "deceleration": 68.3, "rotation_down": 17.6, "downward_expansion": 8.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.189001, 47.990273, 47.1785, 46.825204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.900002, "trend_reference": 46.3615, "distance_from_trend": 0.033185, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.188653, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083989, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.134603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049633, "excess_performance": -0.121259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033185, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083989, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035795, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013093, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049633, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.514075, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4382, "relative_activity": 4.207999, "balance": 0.514075, "dry_up": 3.038124, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01846, "annualized_volatility": 0.108741, "from_high_reference": -0.076358, "from_low_reference": 0.110467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.3615, "fair_value_reference": 44.188653, "structural_low": 44.900002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.0109, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.028877, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.05988, "worst_return": -0.066927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013932, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.076215, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.090225, "worst_return": -0.07122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.105414, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.115278, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.116735, "worst_return": -0.063308, "sufficient": false 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.442331, "energy": 93.630996, "activity_lines": [ 48.364001, 47.696364, 46.884476, 46.58186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.154999, "volume": 6292, "typical_volume": 841.15, "trend": 46.217166, "fair_value": 44.128301, "relative_strength": -7.323408, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.439604, "energy": 62.337664, "activity_lines": [ 48.328, 47.885182, 47.0465, 46.716634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.900002, "volume": 4382, "typical_volume": 1041.35, "trend": 46.3615, "fair_value": 44.188653, "relative_strength": -10.134603, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.153926, "energy": 54.532447, "activity_lines": [ 48.189001, 47.990273, 47.1785, 46.825204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }