{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0bf44c42-4ca3-4974-ab7d-3f255050309f", "symbol": "STKE", "name": "Sol Strategies Inc. Common Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.86, "architecture_energy": 56.225, "architecture_maturity": 19.668, "architecture_confidence": 87.459, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.46, "rotation_up": 13.67, "upward_expansion": 14.18, "deceleration": 35.36, "rotation_down": 64.43, "downward_expansion": 85.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.069307, 1.151665, 1.26805, 1.291386 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.06, "trend_reference": 1.360447, "distance_from_trend": -0.220844, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.157278, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.794465, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.984751, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.220588, "excess_performance": -0.408042, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213781, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.794465, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153755, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.639848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098547, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220588, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.141654, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 450532, "relative_activity": 0.33388, "balance": 1.141654, "dry_up": 0.560588, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.310305, "annualized_volatility": 1.159309, "from_high_reference": -0.922267, "from_low_reference": 0.251476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.360447, "fair_value_reference": 5.157278, "structural_low": 0.847, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.05761, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.492611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.297629, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.281552, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.658241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.337278, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.382204, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.025641, "worst_return": -0.870399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.643836, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 18.558621, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.232804, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.8, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.209607, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.154718, 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22.549001, "activity_lines": [ 1.328, 1.368727, 1.371662, 1.390578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.1, "volume": 855001, "typical_volume": 1486615.5, "trend": 1.447367, "fair_value": 5.148132, "relative_strength": -66.46615, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.019769, "energy": 26.888761, "activity_lines": [ 1.264667, 1.301273, 1.3478, 1.366318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.06, "volume": 668326, "typical_volume": 1433485.0, "trend": 1.426367, "fair_value": 5.151301, "relative_strength": -65.734093, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.325392, "energy": 27.758543, "activity_lines": [ 1.199333, 1.239818, 1.321224, 1.341327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9924, "volume": 1051932, "typical_volume": 1422406.5, "trend": 1.400113, "fair_value": 5.15397, "relative_strength": -66.481498, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.296281, "energy": 45.845152, "activity_lines": [ 1.1188, 1.183709, 1.289781, 1.313329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.06, "volume": 450532, "typical_volume": 1349382.65, "trend": 1.360447, "fair_value": 5.157278, "relative_strength": -63.984751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.859885, "energy": 56.224724, "activity_lines": [ 1.069307, 1.151665, 1.26805, 1.291386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }