{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c0cfb59-be8a-4439-b318-eab3fb34d1e0", "symbol": "RPPL", "name": "Rajshree Polypack Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 78.976, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.233, "architecture_energy": 62.112, "architecture_maturity": 44.156, "architecture_confidence": 81.512, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.39, "rotation_up": 68.61, "upward_expansion": 82.11, "deceleration": 65.77, "rotation_down": 16.63, "downward_expansion": 8.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.016666, 22.210909, 20.26781, 19.163892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.809999, "trend_reference": 18.059333, "distance_from_trend": 0.429178, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.631185, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128958, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 37.817007, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.418911, "excess_performance": 0.46262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.429178, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128958, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.268492, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.37817, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.459547, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.418911, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.639153, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2010889, "relative_activity": 4.797597, "balance": 2.639153, "dry_up": 1.990647, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092719, "annualized_volatility": 0.439567, "from_high_reference": -0.043011, "from_low_reference": 0.811228 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.059333, "fair_value_reference": 29.631185, "structural_low": 14.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.01334, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.018791, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.238758, "worst_return": -0.145811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.091691, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00714, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.365363, "worst_return": -0.227527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05695, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.14084, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.470626, "worst_return": -0.239296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.417541, "energy": 89.749676, "activity_lines": [ 21.628, 19.999091, 18.428381, 17.874538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.26, "volume": 649085, "typical_volume": 386813.05, "trend": 17.672, "fair_value": 29.701705, "relative_strength": 19.32991, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.225358, "energy": 85.866462, "activity_lines": [ 22.126, 20.597818, 18.890286, 18.182258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.469999, "volume": 297621, "typical_volume": 371178.15, "trend": 17.722667, "fair_value": 29.670809, "relative_strength": 18.209323, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.405068, "energy": 79.844363, "activity_lines": [ 22.08, 20.978727, 19.25, 18.42729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.120001, "volume": 379884, "typical_volume": 356482.65, "trend": 17.79, "fair_value": 29.642887, "relative_strength": 13.718212, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.165503, "energy": 51.941265, "activity_lines": [ 21.772667, 21.212364, 19.548286, 18.646473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.809999, "volume": 2010889, "typical_volume": 419145.0, "trend": 18.059333, "fair_value": 29.631185, "relative_strength": 37.817007, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.233378, "energy": 62.112449, "activity_lines": [ 23.016666, 22.210909, 20.26781, 19.163892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }