{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c1409b8-bc68-4562-a4c1-a6cf2308457d", "symbol": "FRD", "name": "Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.833, "architecture_energy": 63.889, "architecture_maturity": 69.977, "architecture_confidence": 65.496, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.24, "rotation_up": 59.45, "upward_expansion": 78.45, "deceleration": 74.24, "rotation_down": 20.6, "downward_expansion": 9.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.44999, 35.971777, 31.333732, 28.04373 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 43.91, "trend_reference": 24.417315, "distance_from_trend": 0.798314, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.871052, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.457046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 71.472871, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.184488, "excess_performance": 0.997035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.798314, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237862, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.457046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.127004, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.714729, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.755925, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.184488, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.201777, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 593656, "relative_activity": 2.057621, "balance": 1.201777, "dry_up": 1.679748, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119414, "annualized_volatility": 0.700618, "from_high_reference": -0.042938, "from_low_reference": 1.726502 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.417315, "fair_value_reference": 17.871052, "structural_low": 16.517802, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.014118, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.027981, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.283173, "worst_return": -0.320484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.085801, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.05894, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.140721, "worst_return": -0.426142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.047368, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.049724, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.25147, "worst_return": -0.153519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 22.67057, "fair_value": 17.47827, "relative_strength": 44.636113, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.348416, "energy": 64.514274, "activity_lines": [ 34.281775, 32.465534, 27.771392, 25.249467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.6, "volume": 352621, "typical_volume": 259885.25, "trend": 23.170992, "fair_value": 17.600385, "relative_strength": 51.366935, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.2887, "energy": 62.872961, "activity_lines": [ 34.571359, 33.531069, 28.850243, 26.083623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.25, "volume": 352570, "typical_volume": 268830.55, "trend": 23.607357, "fair_value": 17.700926, "relative_strength": 38.937713, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.604412, "energy": 52.286557, "activity_lines": [ 34.19602, 33.896605, 29.623114, 26.733882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.91, "volume": 593656, "typical_volume": 288515.75, "trend": 24.417315, "fair_value": 17.871052, "relative_strength": 71.472871, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.833026, "energy": 63.889413, "activity_lines": [ 37.44999, 35.971777, 31.333732, 28.04373 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }