{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0c148c95-feb8-48f3-8221-9c2d980681e3",
    "symbol": "COHR",
    "name": "Coherent Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 93.052,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 21.397,
    "architecture_energy": 19.613,
    "architecture_maturity": 50.448,
    "architecture_confidence": 92.889,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.13,
        "rotation_up": 23.93,
        "upward_expansion": 42.83,
        "deceleration": 81.93,
        "rotation_down": 38.9,
        "downward_expansion": 34.5
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        311.605333,
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        337.479571,
        324.048882
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 379.13,
    "trend_reference": 298.427,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.270428,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 122.227564,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 2.101837,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 49.578343,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.665188,
    "excess_performance": 0.539563,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.270428,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.231732,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.101837,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.352192,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.495783,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.340295,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.665188,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.994886,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 37580961,
      "relative_activity": 1.314016,
      "balance": 0.994886,
      "dry_up": 0.955253,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.186245,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.745756,
      "from_high_reference": -0.138341,
      "from_low_reference": 3.494714
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 298.427,
      "fair_value_reference": 122.227564,
      "structural_low": 204.57,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.160875,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.110815,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.234302,
        "worst_return": -0.103466,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.599507,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.480471,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.858034,
        "worst_return": 0.338761,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.994113,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.806052,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.40924,
        "worst_return": -0.142857,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.357162,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.170712,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.122412,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
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        "return": -0.033664,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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      {
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 31108342.95,
        "trend": 289.439333,
        "fair_value": 118.723205,
        "relative_strength": 20.051958,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 262.89,
        "volume": 31753093,
        "typical_volume": 30950296.7,
        "trend": 291.724667,
        "fair_value": 120.086859,
        "relative_strength": 9.329866,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -26.507755,
        "energy": 31.954207,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 379.13,
        "volume": 37580961,
        "typical_volume": 28600072.0,
        "trend": 298.427,
        "fair_value": 122.227564,
        "relative_strength": 49.578343,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.396798,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}