{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c1616eb-d401-4139-8201-f83522fbde74", "symbol": "BITB", "name": "BITWISE BITCOIN ETF COMMON SHARES OF BENEFICIAL INTEREST", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.938, "architecture_energy": 29.604, "architecture_maturity": 60.321, "architecture_confidence": 85.743, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.64, "rotation_up": 25.86, "upward_expansion": 15.67, "deceleration": 45.89, "rotation_down": 34.54, "downward_expansion": 63.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.772, 34.375091, 36.091667, 36.928151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.24, "trend_reference": 38.494667, "distance_from_trend": -0.084549, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.256148, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203726, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.268039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073607, "excess_performance": -0.199232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06193, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073607, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.65657, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4372626, "relative_activity": 0.567636, "balance": 0.65657, "dry_up": 0.657454, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076411, "annualized_volatility": 0.380224, "from_high_reference": -0.487344, "from_low_reference": 0.119085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.494667, "fair_value_reference": 44.256148, "structural_low": 31.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005522, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.006081, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.176897, "worst_return": -0.217095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.176484, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.218196, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.114657, "worst_return": -0.238311, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.325644, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.407415, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.325644, "worst_return": -0.325644, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 67.430023, "activity_lines": [ 33.786, 35.057818, 37.22819, 38.188129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.82, "volume": 5016483, "typical_volume": 10269077.05, "trend": 39.865667, "fair_value": 44.4725, "relative_strength": -33.476715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.13219, "energy": 51.144854, "activity_lines": [ 34.121333, 34.674, 36.936619, 37.834688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.84, "volume": 4797367, "typical_volume": 9059149.45, "trend": 39.442333, "fair_value": 44.400075, "relative_strength": -32.048647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.515069, "energy": 41.805341, "activity_lines": [ 34.443333, 34.452364, 36.65081, 37.510452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.13, "volume": 6071597, "typical_volume": 8254729.7, "trend": 38.953333, "fair_value": 44.323433, "relative_strength": -33.148356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.420047, "energy": 34.311826, "activity_lines": [ 34.481333, 34.249091, 36.307571, 37.16772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.24, "volume": 4372626, "typical_volume": 7703226.3, "trend": 38.494667, "fair_value": 44.256148, "relative_strength": -32.268039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.938271, "energy": 29.604323, "activity_lines": [ 34.772, 34.375091, 36.091667, 36.928151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }