{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c1f9333-0d02-46d5-9595-1487842f917a", "symbol": "DB39", "name": "Xtrackers - FTSE Developed Europe Real Estate UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.314, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.419, "architecture_energy": 58.368, "architecture_maturity": 10.545, "architecture_confidence": 52.808, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.0, "rotation_up": 71.3, "upward_expansion": 64.44, "deceleration": 19.01, "rotation_down": 18.34, "downward_expansion": 20.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.356333, 25.097091, 24.721524, 24.62757 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.424999, "trend_reference": 24.641, "distance_from_trend": 0.031817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.335417, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089546, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.904226, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011538, "excess_performance": -0.162709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013137, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089546, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036758, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011168, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011538, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.647343, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1211, "relative_activity": 0.985394, "balance": 2.647343, "dry_up": 1.231743, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025838, "annualized_volatility": 0.207635, "from_high_reference": -0.049533, "from_low_reference": 0.139623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.641, "fair_value_reference": 23.335417, "structural_low": 22.309999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.069818, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006825, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.005591, "worst_return": -0.10014, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.06491, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.086843, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.001242, "worst_return": -0.128578, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.071378, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.09163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.012011, "worst_return": -0.130746, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1211, "typical_volume": 1489.15, "trend": 24.4575, "fair_value": 23.202795, "relative_strength": -16.575886, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.957253, "energy": 33.220469, "activity_lines": [ 24.743667, 24.465364, 24.318143, 24.416452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.195, "volume": 3633, "typical_volume": 1295.5, "trend": 24.511333, "fair_value": 23.233532, "relative_strength": -13.353539, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.218197, "energy": 48.151308, "activity_lines": [ 24.947001, 24.631819, 24.399881, 24.464032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1107.85, "trend": 24.563667, "fair_value": 23.265039, "relative_strength": -13.904856, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.419575, "energy": 53.527463, "activity_lines": [ 25.108, 24.788728, 24.494191, 24.511688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.555, "volume": 1211, "typical_volume": 1168.4, "trend": 24.620167, "fair_value": 23.300359, "relative_strength": -12.394226, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.786659, "energy": 60.460892, "activity_lines": [ 25.279334, 24.967182, 24.617405, 24.575645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.424999, "volume": 1211, "typical_volume": 1228.95, "trend": 24.641, "fair_value": 23.335417, "relative_strength": -14.904226, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.418675, "energy": 58.36846, "activity_lines": [ 25.356333, 25.097091, 24.721524, 24.62757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }