{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c223d7f-a836-4e93-a4e6-d637e8ca233f", "symbol": "TPK", "name": "Travis Perkins plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 80.621, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.699, "architecture_energy": 37.827, "architecture_maturity": 13.707, "architecture_confidence": 74.025, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.21, "rotation_up": 56.28, "upward_expansion": 34.61, "deceleration": 33.63, "rotation_down": 20.6, "downward_expansion": 27.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 594.133333, 577.118182, 562.743123, 569.87796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 675.0, "trend_reference": 588.831014, "distance_from_trend": 0.146339, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 700.583744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036518, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.497486, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079277, "excess_performance": 0.012999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.146339, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02775, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036518, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.226408, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034975, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213377, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079277, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.223052, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6702613, "relative_activity": 2.531695, "balance": 1.223052, "dry_up": 1.386684, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067146, "annualized_volatility": 0.474827, "from_high_reference": -0.066914, "from_low_reference": 0.368058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 588.831014, "fair_value_reference": 700.583744, "structural_low": 493.399994, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.059078, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.035928, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.051419, "worst_return": -0.066737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.062348, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042948, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068558, "worst_return": 0.056138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.053691, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.035892, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.053659, "worst_return": -0.053724, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 700.583744, "relative_strength": 3.497486, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.698841, "energy": 37.826639, "activity_lines": [ 594.133333, 577.118182, 562.743123, 569.87796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }