{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c243dc4-0569-4bd7-86a3-2d20745524ee", "symbol": "RA3S", "name": "Leverage Shares -3x Short Ferrari (RACE) ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -86.472, "architecture_energy": 85.627, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.953, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 17.6, "upward_expansion": 18.82, "deceleration": 39.52, "rotation_down": 73.86, "downward_expansion": 94.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.738, 1.899091, 2.263143, 2.542258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.415, "trend_reference": 2.903333, "distance_from_trend": -0.512629, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.971765, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.715393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.022714, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.659856, "excess_performance": -0.711091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.512629, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083544, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.715393, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203512, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.520227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.616988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.659856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.826676, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.000299, "balance": 4.826676, "dry_up": 0.783838, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.242185, "annualized_volatility": 1.17225, "from_high_reference": -0.672454, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.903333, "fair_value_reference": 4.971765, "structural_low": 1.415, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009756, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.021029, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.337821, "worst_return": -0.261097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.158255, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.179786, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.447917, "worst_return": -0.42191, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.061803, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.13652, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.316279, "worst_return": -0.439885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-33.681217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.298174, "energy": 86.431621, "activity_lines": [ 2.055667, 2.329273, 2.656381, 2.857333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.91, "volume": 1710, "typical_volume": 3080.8, "trend": 3.035167, "fair_value": 5.267871, "relative_strength": -34.446856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.973168, "energy": 88.326487, "activity_lines": [ 1.972667, 2.209364, 2.561738, 2.782376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.18, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 2952.35, "trend": 3.005833, "fair_value": 5.175884, "relative_strength": -26.25774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.697373, "energy": 83.126581, "activity_lines": [ 2.015, 2.159818, 2.496095, 2.727204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.68, "volume": 8776, "typical_volume": 3390.0, "trend": 2.955833, "fair_value": 5.075611, "relative_strength": -43.390753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.099339, "energy": 78.86889, "activity_lines": [ 1.906, 2.043727, 2.387214, 2.641667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.415, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 3345.4, "trend": 2.903333, "fair_value": 4.971765, "relative_strength": -52.022714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.471999, "energy": 85.627386, "activity_lines": [ 1.738, 1.899091, 2.263143, 2.542258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }