{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c31d348-b54c-449c-8dd0-0f856a1ccd46", "symbol": "TMQ", "name": "Trilogy Metals Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.524, "architecture_energy": 41.288, "architecture_maturity": 19.902, "architecture_confidence": 91.011, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.87, "rotation_up": 20.58, "upward_expansion": 7.29, "deceleration": 49.97, "rotation_down": 57.0, "downward_expansion": 78.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.649333, 4.707636, 5.082381, 5.227957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.3, "trend_reference": 5.570667, "distance_from_trend": -0.048588, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.57891, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.055132, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.944407, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.167975, "excess_performance": -0.288396, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048588, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07551, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.055132, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.727276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.33863, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167975, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.580816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 717500, "relative_activity": 0.630869, "balance": 0.580816, "dry_up": 0.854421, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120174, "annualized_volatility": 0.686743, "from_high_reference": -0.651545, "from_low_reference": 1.560386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.570667, "fair_value_reference": 2.57891, "structural_low": 3.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.026368, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.035416, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.201754, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.104054, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.100479, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.155172, "worst_return": -0.470085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.146067, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.163473, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.015152, "worst_return": -0.523077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.420765, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172285, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099138, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.051195, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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5.490545, 5.524667, 5.69628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.91, "volume": 64400, "typical_volume": 1614475.0, "trend": 5.920667, "fair_value": 2.455705, "relative_strength": -14.707052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.013263, "energy": 62.670051, "activity_lines": [ 5.048667, 5.357273, 5.468095, 5.627828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.57, "volume": 1470000, "typical_volume": 1505295.0, "trend": 5.857333, "fair_value": 2.480321, "relative_strength": -21.145005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.714116, "energy": 71.747998, "activity_lines": [ 4.852, 5.175091, 5.382905, 5.540688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.16, "volume": 1435900, "typical_volume": 1424470.0, "trend": 5.778667, "fair_value": 2.502436, "relative_strength": -28.326511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.684531, "energy": 79.328883, "activity_lines": [ 4.572667, 4.945273, 5.26219, 5.431183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.29, "volume": 642000, "typical_volume": 1289670.0, "trend": 5.697333, "fair_value": 2.525385, "relative_strength": -26.514191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.259692, "energy": 77.056013, "activity_lines": [ 4.426667, 4.775455, 5.162524, 5.33514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.37, "volume": 1091600, "typical_volume": 1227065.0, "trend": 5.634, "fair_value": 2.549167, "relative_strength": -25.230711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.671253, "energy": 72.767169, "activity_lines": [ 4.369333, 4.645636, 5.075905, 5.249505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.3, "volume": 717500, "typical_volume": 1137320.0, "trend": 5.570667, "fair_value": 2.57891, "relative_strength": -12.944407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.524406, "energy": 41.288058, "activity_lines": [ 4.649333, 4.707636, 5.082381, 5.227957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }