{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c325c3d-3db5-4d8f-9525-a70a67792654", "symbol": "XCSI", "name": "XTRACKERS XTRACKERS CSI500 SWAP", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.414, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.547, "architecture_energy": 33.893, "architecture_maturity": 29.482, "architecture_confidence": 56.15, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.8, "rotation_up": 16.76, "upward_expansion": 18.7, "deceleration": 69.31, "rotation_down": 64.42, "downward_expansion": 41.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.496, 56.078818, 56.748453, 56.30471 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 56.705002, "trend_reference": 55.797833, "distance_from_trend": 0.016258, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.430467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.014494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042659, "excess_performance": -0.008576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016258, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07069, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.368679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030145, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214867, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042659, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.225586, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37855, "relative_activity": 1.91385, "balance": 0.225586, "dry_up": 1.089537, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049652, "annualized_volatility": 0.277342, "from_high_reference": -0.082889, "from_low_reference": 0.489689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.797833, "fair_value_reference": 41.430467, "structural_low": 49.450001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078878, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09243, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02313, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081228, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-09", "close": 25.896299, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 52.445, "volume": 3760, "typical_volume": 18689.6, "trend": 55.279167, "fair_value": 41.056069, "relative_strength": -1.007801, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.732725, "energy": 12.664441, "activity_lines": [ 57.489, 57.908819, 57.312953, 56.55714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.904999, "volume": 7981, "typical_volume": 19021.4, "trend": 55.480833, "fair_value": 41.171107, "relative_strength": -1.715912, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.247479, "energy": 20.763914, "activity_lines": [ 55.573333, 56.968909, 56.998191, 56.403968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.869999, "volume": 36606, "typical_volume": 18198.95, "trend": 55.632667, "fair_value": 41.283596, "relative_strength": -3.27308, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.511262, "energy": 39.68262, "activity_lines": [ 54.132333, 56.125273, 56.686976, 56.235527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.705002, "volume": 37855, "typical_volume": 19779.5, "trend": 55.797833, "fair_value": 41.430467, "relative_strength": 3.014494, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.546815, "energy": 33.892517, "activity_lines": [ 54.496, 56.078818, 56.748453, 56.30471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }