{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0c360a02-9cef-4fb0-aef1-dd31ca834ceb",
    "symbol": "002522",
    "name": "Zhejiang Zhongcheng Packing Material Co., Ltd.",
    "exchange": "SHZ",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "399001.SZ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -64.099,
    "architecture_energy": 76.849,
    "architecture_maturity": 16.116,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.859,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.73,
        "rotation_up": 8.21,
        "upward_expansion": 17.59,
        "deceleration": 37.04,
        "rotation_down": 75.29,
        "downward_expansion": 90.92
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        4.814,
        5.389083,
        5.917743,
        5.999909
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 4.99,
    "trend_reference": 6.059172,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.176455,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 4.708615,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05976,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -14.492716,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.162752,
    "excess_performance": -0.170151,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.176455,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032194,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05976,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.447636,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.144927,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.198921,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.162752,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.430378,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 134984473,
      "relative_activity": 0.673576,
      "balance": 0.430378,
      "dry_up": 0.81269,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.167563,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.669802,
      "from_high_reference": -0.382426,
      "from_low_reference": 0.190931
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.059172,
      "fair_value_reference": 4.708615,
      "structural_low": 4.19,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 22,
        "median_return": -0.011858,
        "positive_rate": 0.409091,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.590909,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00694,
        "regime_survival": 0.818182,
        "best_return": 0.180921,
        "worst_return": -0.174935,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.028599,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.044504,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.387302,
        "worst_return": -0.22464,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.064833,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016198,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
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        "worst_return": -0.131428,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.155432,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.035982,
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        "best_return": 0.628444,
        "worst_return": -0.373464,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-02-02",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.048706,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-02-21",
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        "return": 0.493188,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.264655,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.009709,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "return": 0.002101,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 201631927.25,
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        "fair_value": 4.707972,
        "relative_strength": -23.442855,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.92,
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        "typical_volume": 200638588.3,
        "trend": 6.080838,
        "fair_value": 4.707722,
        "relative_strength": -11.563386,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.978663,
        "energy": 76.875483,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.99,
        "volume": 134984473,
        "typical_volume": 200399775.05,
        "trend": 6.059172,
        "fair_value": 4.708615,
        "relative_strength": -14.492716,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.098522,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}