{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c375342-1faa-4331-8f6f-e14485090e69", "symbol": "600989", "name": "Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.28, "architecture_energy": 27.097, "architecture_maturity": 59.926, "architecture_confidence": 60.307, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.16, "rotation_up": 29.61, "upward_expansion": 21.6, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 27.03, "downward_expansion": 60.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.971333, 22.258, 23.578636, 24.633021 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.67, "trend_reference": 25.001005, "distance_from_trend": -0.053238, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.993418, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.392892, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.72795, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012781, "excess_performance": 0.055985, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053293, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.392892, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.327372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.09728, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182954, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012781, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.913444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 312468759, "relative_activity": 0.78742, "balance": 0.913444, "dry_up": 1.261496, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082903, "annualized_volatility": 0.542385, "from_high_reference": -0.340541, "from_low_reference": 0.594927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.001005, "fair_value_reference": 16.993418, "structural_low": 19.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.032781, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.038435, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.202041, "worst_return": -0.082657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046196, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.031688, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.197953, "worst_return": -0.070922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.10123, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.015239, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.210351, "worst_return": -0.075512, 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"close": 23.379999, "volume": 690114118, "typical_volume": 479599617.55, "trend": 24.698338, "fair_value": 16.852271, "relative_strength": 13.357339, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.223713, "energy": 42.33406, "activity_lines": [ 21.658666, 21.837454, 24.016421, 24.800374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.290001, "volume": 408010502, "typical_volume": 435399604.25, "trend": 24.855634, "fair_value": 16.921863, "relative_strength": 11.696383, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.03473, "energy": 36.447636, "activity_lines": [ 22.336667, 21.983636, 23.753618, 24.709514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.67, "volume": 312468759, "typical_volume": 396826094.4, "trend": 25.001005, "fair_value": 16.993418, "relative_strength": 9.72795, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.27987, "energy": 27.096634, "activity_lines": [ 22.971333, 22.258, 23.578636, 24.633021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }