{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c3cd755-a8d2-4ee2-a114-8c344ef868a2", "symbol": "CPSY", "name": "CALAMOS S&P 500 STRUCTURED ALT PROTECTION ETF - JANUARY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.942, "architecture_energy": 86.652, "architecture_maturity": 13.777, "architecture_confidence": 72.752, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.2, "rotation_up": 75.74, "upward_expansion": 95.74, "deceleration": 42.77, "rotation_down": 20.77, "downward_expansion": 17.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.835347, 25.776649, 25.686836, 25.569378 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.9349, "trend_reference": 25.4294, "distance_from_trend": 0.019879, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.611143, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053787, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.173798, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.029367, "excess_performance": -0.096258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019879, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010057, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053787, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00651, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081738, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000929, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029367, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.835551, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10091, "relative_activity": 1.835328, "balance": 1.835551, "dry_up": 1.987969, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003451, "annualized_volatility": 0.021169, "from_high_reference": -0.000197, "from_low_reference": 0.063778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.4294, "fair_value_reference": 24.611143, "structural_low": 24.89, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.006215, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018038, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.006215, "worst_return": 0.006215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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73.586565, "energy": 85.669385, "activity_lines": [ 25.72866, 25.692227, 25.585565, 25.481017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.7506, "volume": 17764, "typical_volume": 5637.6, "trend": 25.381577, "fair_value": 24.580138, "relative_strength": -5.091985, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.745076, "energy": 84.58553, "activity_lines": [ 25.742967, 25.707896, 25.614022, 25.506267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.8298, "volume": 12619, "typical_volume": 5763.05, "trend": 25.404903, "fair_value": 24.595194, "relative_strength": -5.591654, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.549584, "energy": 83.705791, "activity_lines": [ 25.778633, 25.734682, 25.647186, 25.535185 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.9349, "volume": 10091, "typical_volume": 5498.2, "trend": 25.4294, "fair_value": 24.611143, "relative_strength": -8.173798, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.941966, "energy": 86.652483, "activity_lines": [ 25.835347, 25.776649, 25.686836, 25.569378 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }