{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c3f9394-66aa-40b0-9f70-231317330453", "symbol": "VXT", "name": "Vidinext AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.901, "architecture_energy": 47.885, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.685, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.43, "rotation_up": 17.7, "upward_expansion": 7.75, "deceleration": 45.92, "rotation_down": 60.68, "downward_expansion": 83.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1464, 0.161509, 0.200462, 0.229497 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.16, "trend_reference": 0.263167, "distance_from_trend": -0.39202, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.16083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.436598, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.526627, "excess_performance": -0.591267, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.39202, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002412, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005162, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.782681, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344366, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.574318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.526627, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.21473, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11300, "relative_activity": 3.174782, "balance": 2.21473, "dry_up": 1.188857, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.49375, "annualized_volatility": 1.244701, "from_high_reference": -0.68, "from_low_reference": 1.253521 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.263167, "fair_value_reference": 0.16083, "structural_low": 0.071, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.080218, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.083599, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.872727, "worst_return": -0.403974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.159791, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.882353, "worst_return": -0.437086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.210526, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.107382, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.18543, "worst_return": -0.224138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.688889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.226087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.201149, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055215, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.084656, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"fair_value": 0.160577, "relative_strength": -31.499717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.060221, "energy": 64.743392, "activity_lines": [ 0.163467, 0.184309, 0.221857, 0.246474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.106, "volume": 5455, "typical_volume": 3218.15, "trend": 0.26365, "fair_value": 0.160423, "relative_strength": -55.595024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.832445, "energy": 70.446589, "activity_lines": [ 0.143533, 0.166327, 0.20811, 0.236184 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.16, "volume": 11300, "typical_volume": 3559.3, "trend": 0.263167, "fair_value": 0.16083, "relative_strength": -34.436598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.900879, "energy": 47.885479, "activity_lines": [ 0.1464, 0.161509, 0.200462, 0.229497 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }