{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c44a1db-8245-4b6c-aeab-6812d539626a", "symbol": "ADVE", "name": "MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL FUNDS ASIA DIVIDEND ACTIVE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.023, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.863, "architecture_energy": 25.861, "architecture_maturity": 31.571, "architecture_confidence": 85.966, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.0, "rotation_up": 37.81, "upward_expansion": 64.28, "deceleration": 87.84, "rotation_down": 25.65, "downward_expansion": 11.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.764167, 45.700675, 45.674447, 45.122456 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.3725, "trend_reference": 44.366077, "distance_from_trend": 0.045224, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.465063, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.345493, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.515643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.081194, "excess_performance": -0.044431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045224, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054615, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.345493, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068183, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081194, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.86275, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31746, "relative_activity": 6.396985, "balance": 4.86275, "dry_up": 1.944979, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033172, "annualized_volatility": 0.201586, "from_high_reference": -0.029323, "from_low_reference": 0.300184 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.366077, "fair_value_reference": 34.465063, "structural_low": 39.801461, "invalidation": "A 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084965, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.227091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111602, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028489, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033262, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 27.531496, "volume": 52812, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 27.059744, "volume": 28, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] 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"direction": 31.891708, "energy": 17.263569, "activity_lines": [ 45.295247, 45.580891, 45.444913, 44.869413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.6998, "volume": 3056, "typical_volume": 3891.8, "trend": 44.169681, "fair_value": 34.385681, "relative_strength": 1.584103, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.967725, "energy": 16.943803, "activity_lines": [ 45.434947, 45.578463, 45.537466, 44.980338 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.3725, "volume": 31746, "typical_volume": 4962.65, "trend": 44.366077, "fair_value": 34.465063, "relative_strength": -0.515643, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.862677, "energy": 25.861018, "activity_lines": [ 45.764167, 45.700675, 45.674447, 45.122456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }