{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c455650-ea86-48b9-880d-e3aa1bf703dc", "symbol": "CASE", "name": "Case Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.143, "architecture_energy": 8.484, "architecture_maturity": 34.047, "architecture_confidence": 54.142, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.22, "rotation_up": 29.68, "upward_expansion": 17.9, "deceleration": 54.62, "rotation_down": 40.95, "downward_expansion": 40.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.293333, 21.283636, 21.531539, 21.552064 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.0, "trend_reference": 21.551333, "distance_from_trend": -0.025582, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.457841, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202898, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.324371, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04443, "excess_performance": -0.017065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025582, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043929, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202898, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002635, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203244, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023089, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04443, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.488643, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6163, "relative_activity": 0.423526, "balance": 1.488643, "dry_up": 0.54901, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090647, "annualized_volatility": 0.461748, "from_high_reference": -0.425287, "from_low_reference": 0.105263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.551333, "fair_value_reference": 17.457841, "structural_low": 19.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.036145, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.045243, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.19469, "worst_return": -0.086351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017837, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0078, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.300885, "worst_return": -0.259053, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.300885, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.255753, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.843373, "worst_return": -0.415042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084337, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.193333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.441624, "active": false }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 9885, "typical_volume": 15940.0, "trend": 21.600444, "fair_value": 17.374647, "relative_strength": -19.123722, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.482255, "energy": 30.970267, "activity_lines": [ 21.146667, 21.358182, 21.567222, 21.577412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 11232, "typical_volume": 16062.2, "trend": 21.592444, "fair_value": 17.419583, "relative_strength": -15.97918, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.694455, "energy": 14.896308, "activity_lines": [ 21.366666, 21.389091, 21.588746, 21.590286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.0, "volume": 6163, "typical_volume": 14551.65, "trend": 21.551333, "fair_value": 17.457841, "relative_strength": -20.324371, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.14304, "energy": 8.484384, "activity_lines": [ 21.293333, 21.283636, 21.531539, 21.552064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }