{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c475c28-8f9f-449a-b831-ad7d760776e0", "symbol": "3585", "name": "Advance Materials Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.707, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.092, "architecture_energy": 51.664, "architecture_maturity": 3.844, "architecture_confidence": 62.079, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.44, "rotation_up": 14.73, "upward_expansion": 31.57, "deceleration": 49.31, "rotation_down": 63.76, "downward_expansion": 49.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.269999, 54.260908, 64.347381, 60.107527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 49.299999, "trend_reference": 50.463333, "distance_from_trend": -0.023053, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.169423, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.048965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.066332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.960961, "excess_performance": 1.519589, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023053, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.438863, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.048965, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -3.902407, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.160663, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.862176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.960961, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.52976, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3213407, "relative_activity": 0.211107, "balance": 0.52976, "dry_up": 0.306602, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.310267, "annualized_volatility": 2.044302, "from_high_reference": -0.740526, "from_low_reference": 7.99635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.463333, "fair_value_reference": 16.169423, "structural_low": 14.3, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.056376, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.068863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035669, "worst_return": -0.091803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.049664, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.045955, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.324841, "worst_return": -0.159353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.051007, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.094787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.33121, "worst_return": -0.131517, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011004, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078014, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.515528, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157205, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.224914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 3.618619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.317731, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-14", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 6.79, "volume": 282762, "typical_volume": 253373.6, "trend": 7.548, "fair_value": 7.840115, "relative_strength": -18.100389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"typical_volume": 18185176.3, "trend": 48.05, "fair_value": 15.630128, "relative_strength": 17.538178, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.27565, "energy": 34.508546, "activity_lines": [ 51.943333, 59.713636, 67.500476, 60.101075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.099998, "volume": 3726267, "typical_volume": 17438299.85, "trend": 49.25, "fair_value": 15.898397, "relative_strength": 19.378985, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.431382, "energy": 50.389392, "activity_lines": [ 49.056665, 56.591818, 65.939523, 60.104301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 49.299999, "volume": 3213407, "typical_volume": 15221678.45, "trend": 50.463333, "fair_value": 16.169423, "relative_strength": 16.066332, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.092246, "energy": 51.663812, "activity_lines": [ 48.269999, 54.260908, 64.347381, 60.107527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }