{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c48e8c3-fff3-4a43-8258-f279d429640f", "symbol": "NPCT", "name": "Nuveen Core Plus Impact Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.342, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.649, "architecture_energy": 49.197, "architecture_maturity": 3.069, "architecture_confidence": 95.746, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.28, "rotation_up": 17.37, "upward_expansion": 12.87, "deceleration": 36.8, "rotation_down": 54.71, "downward_expansion": 81.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.76133, 9.795021, 9.88239, 9.916543 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.81, "trend_reference": 9.942864, "distance_from_trend": -0.013363, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.949157, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096193, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.914902, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016902, "excess_performance": -0.142527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013363, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001736, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086556, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047145, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.358354, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 578298, "relative_activity": 1.03944, "balance": 0.358354, "dry_up": 1.14012, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022613, "annualized_volatility": 0.118791, "from_high_reference": -0.060625, "from_low_reference": 0.029518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.942864, "fair_value_reference": 8.949157, "structural_low": 9.528733, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.043046, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": 0.001006, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.11347, "worst_return": -0.065099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069598, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.033858, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.163467, "worst_return": -0.007944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050569, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041354, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.1444, "worst_return": 0.024303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.532637, "energy": 18.2936, "activity_lines": [ 9.851351, 9.855725, 9.940393, 9.954503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.71, "volume": 679847, "typical_volume": 591435.15, "trend": 9.935293, "fair_value": 8.914504, "relative_strength": -9.48741, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.766041, "energy": 21.819683, "activity_lines": [ 9.806607, 9.824411, 9.917273, 9.939984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.7, "volume": 487071, "typical_volume": 561554.25, "trend": 9.938033, "fair_value": 8.931546, "relative_strength": -10.202185, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.863524, "energy": 50.364313, "activity_lines": [ 9.761943, 9.798345, 9.894237, 9.924804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.81, "volume": 578298, "typical_volume": 556355.35, "trend": 9.942864, "fair_value": 8.949157, "relative_strength": -11.914902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.648895, "energy": 49.197075, "activity_lines": [ 9.76133, 9.795021, 9.88239, 9.916543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }