{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c48ffa3-9015-445c-aa72-61cfd3e7231f", "symbol": "000876", "name": "New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.738, "architecture_energy": 35.103, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.548, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.46, "rotation_up": 27.34, "upward_expansion": 18.04, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 31.61, "downward_expansion": 63.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.937333, 6.828727, 7.207667, 7.553849 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.92, "trend_reference": 7.995, "distance_from_trend": -0.134459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.300112, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.255923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.665777, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.234513, "excess_performance": -0.241913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09902, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.255923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15401, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011274, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234513, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440818, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150276183, "relative_activity": 1.044663, "balance": 0.440818, "dry_up": 1.240266, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075811, "annualized_volatility": 0.316742, "from_high_reference": -0.347785, "from_low_reference": 0.174873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.995, "fair_value_reference": 9.300112, "structural_low": 5.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.005174, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.005554, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.233251, "worst_return": -0.235512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.021645, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.027439, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.230428, "worst_return": -0.227119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.026204, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.083183, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.322222, "worst_return": -0.257393, "sufficient": true }, { 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.756327, "energy": 44.460884, "activity_lines": [ 6.865333, 6.818, 7.351714, 7.701871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.0, "volume": 134738233, "typical_volume": 145540981.9, "trend": 8.071667, "fair_value": 9.331918, "relative_strength": -19.574454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.004107, "energy": 35.606384, "activity_lines": [ 6.945333, 6.820545, 7.279048, 7.628151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.92, "volume": 150276183, "typical_volume": 143851336.1, "trend": 7.995, "fair_value": 9.300112, "relative_strength": -23.665777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.737719, "energy": 35.103391, "activity_lines": [ 6.937333, 6.828727, 7.207667, 7.553849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }