{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c4def79-79c9-4466-ac1b-382b4fdfdce8", "symbol": "LDUR", "name": "PIMCO ETF TRUST ENHANCED LOW DURATION ACTVE EXCH TRD FD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.444, "architecture_energy": 38.864, "architecture_maturity": 20.367, "architecture_confidence": 72.115, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.86, "rotation_up": 52.43, "upward_expansion": 76.22, "deceleration": 55.23, "rotation_down": 21.82, "downward_expansion": 9.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.117884, 95.07254, 95.010242, 94.967912 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 95.34, "trend_reference": 94.904111, "distance_from_trend": 0.004593, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 89.724931, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062581, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.027695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005656, "excess_performance": -0.119969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004593, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003447, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062581, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008547, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005656, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.337217, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 607116, "relative_activity": 1.6469, "balance": 1.337217, "dry_up": 0.977206, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003565, "annualized_volatility": 0.016355, "from_high_reference": -0.000629, "from_low_reference": 0.034235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 94.904111, "fair_value_reference": 89.724931, "structural_low": 94.31772, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001731, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.015414, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.006418, "worst_return": -0.001736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004827, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.00196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011981, "worst_return": -0.00789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009396, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.084196, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.038027, "worst_return": -0.006728, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 23.877762, "energy": 11.569252, "activity_lines": [ 94.956051, 94.980018, 94.948859, 94.919782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.130069, "volume": 261266, "typical_volume": 346590.25, "trend": 94.874572, "fair_value": 89.642046, "relative_strength": -7.37317, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.694731, "energy": 16.44137, "activity_lines": [ 94.996638, 95.010268, 94.970593, 94.937884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.34, "volume": 607116, "typical_volume": 368641.65, "trend": 94.904111, "fair_value": 89.724931, "relative_strength": -10.027695, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.443793, "energy": 38.864116, "activity_lines": [ 95.117884, 95.07254, 95.010242, 94.967912 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }