{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c54612b-f633-4012-911f-3730046fe03b", "symbol": "XSPRAY", "name": "Xspray Pharma AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.441, "architecture_energy": 55.226, "architecture_maturity": 83.139, "architecture_confidence": 70.717, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.87, "rotation_up": 27.08, "upward_expansion": 21.53, "deceleration": 66.36, "rotation_down": 50.72, "downward_expansion": 73.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.558666, 15.472727, 18.248064, 20.342105 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.02, "trend_reference": 22.575451, "distance_from_trend": -0.334676, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.883709, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.61372, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.931001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.352586, "excess_performance": -0.414081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.334676, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174817, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.61372, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203128, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.53931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352586, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.763935, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 513049, "relative_activity": 1.138567, "balance": 0.763935, "dry_up": 0.614166, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160248, "annualized_volatility": 0.688695, "from_high_reference": -0.765679, "from_low_reference": 0.056259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.575451, "fair_value_reference": 38.883709, "structural_low": 14.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.026764, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": -0.018164, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.227181, "worst_return": -0.216279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.072753, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049303, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.540499, "worst_return": -0.233432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.121539, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.154315, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.002604, "worst_return": -0.305872, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.305872, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.480645, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138716, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156044, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": 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-76.391914, "energy": 90.807792, "activity_lines": [ 16.265333, 19.296909, 22.509927, 23.803592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.34, "volume": 61515, "typical_volume": 424819.7, "trend": 25.114785, "fair_value": 39.412427, "relative_strength": -58.242098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.106675, "energy": 88.286426, "activity_lines": [ 15.468, 18.164909, 21.65753, 23.136165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.94, "volume": 244458, "typical_volume": 432339.35, "trend": 24.579451, "fair_value": 39.300504, "relative_strength": -57.214971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.425448, "energy": 88.439792, "activity_lines": [ 15.181333, 17.174909, 20.826846, 22.479727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.02, "volume": 160315, "typical_volume": 434121.3, "trend": 24.081785, "fair_value": 39.207042, "relative_strength": -55.363591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.755136, "energy": 85.867482, "activity_lines": [ 15.112, 16.412364, 20.061448, 21.862988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.26, "volume": 153355, "typical_volume": 436735.0, "trend": 23.550451, "fair_value": 39.101017, "relative_strength": -54.118918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.863438, "energy": 75.71249, "activity_lines": [ 15.130667, 15.854, 19.372146, 21.293841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.879999, "volume": 280277, "typical_volume": 438667.35, "trend": 23.101451, "fair_value": 38.992555, "relative_strength": -48.634333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.613633, "energy": 58.978206, "activity_lines": [ 15.714666, 15.761818, 18.880176, 20.863489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.02, "volume": 513049, "typical_volume": 450609.6, "trend": 22.575451, "fair_value": 38.883709, "relative_strength": -53.931001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.441051, "energy": 55.225962, "activity_lines": [ 15.558666, 15.472727, 18.248064, 20.342105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }