{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0c546dfd-6704-4c38-b51a-40ce5d3ca1a2",
    "symbol": "000415",
    "name": "Bohai Leasing Co., Ltd.",
    "exchange": "SHZ",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "399001.SZ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 65.8,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -4.496,
    "architecture_energy": 8.306,
    "architecture_maturity": 21.301,
    "architecture_confidence": 60.386,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 61.32,
        "rotation_up": 34.18,
        "upward_expansion": 29.18,
        "deceleration": 40.57,
        "rotation_down": 24.05,
        "downward_expansion": 48.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        4.386,
        4.320545,
        4.310905,
        4.374581
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 4.52,
    "trend_reference": 4.447,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.016416,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3.26859,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.382859,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 6.787738,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.01573,
    "excess_performance": 0.008331,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016416,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036758,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.382859,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.169524,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067877,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056402,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.01573,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.475552,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 248136701,
      "relative_activity": 0.790368,
      "balance": 0.475552,
      "dry_up": 1.02211,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.076923,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.451094,
      "from_high_reference": -0.192857,
      "from_low_reference": 0.357357
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 4.447,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.26859,
      "structural_low": 3.84,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.034632,
        "positive_rate": 0.538462,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.538462,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002153,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
        "best_return": 0.134375,
        "worst_return": -0.069264,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.05,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.076438,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.198198,
        "worst_return": -0.017094,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.177983,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.114919,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.311688,
        "worst_return": -0.029536,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.354978,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.268967,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.35625,
        "worst_return": 0.122363,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.054054,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.153226,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.248869,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.085809,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.391459,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.159898,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.14881,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.12585,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.134375,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.013699,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.13764,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.10984,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.070388,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.078759,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-07-28",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 3.212179,
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 340453567.0,
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        "fair_value": 3.225769,
        "relative_strength": 3.912468,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 17.808455,
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          4.25,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 4.12,
        "volume": 327615877,
        "typical_volume": 332317050.9,
        "trend": 4.416,
        "fair_value": 3.238397,
        "relative_strength": 1.182826,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.928084,
        "energy": 21.186713,
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          4.202,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.55,
        "volume": 349289552,
        "typical_volume": 330768469.25,
        "trend": 4.431333,
        "fair_value": 3.253782,
        "relative_strength": 13.306375,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -18.566447,
        "energy": 9.198887,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.312,
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          4.36886
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.52,
        "volume": 248136701,
        "typical_volume": 313950979.6,
        "trend": 4.447,
        "fair_value": 3.26859,
        "relative_strength": 6.787738,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -4.495722,
        "energy": 8.305973,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.386,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}