{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c63a45e-2872-47ee-bd3b-e9e5edd660fc", "symbol": "SANB3", "name": "Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.093, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.654, "architecture_energy": 19.945, "architecture_maturity": 79.334, "architecture_confidence": 55.672, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.85, "rotation_up": 44.42, "upward_expansion": 23.19, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 12.06, "downward_expansion": 52.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.872507, 13.397942, 13.410205, 13.819862 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.59, "trend_reference": 14.529318, "distance_from_trend": 0.004177, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.586072, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159218, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.064721, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.10768, "excess_performance": -0.050631, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004177, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159218, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037807, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020647, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141366, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10768, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.400837, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4167000, "relative_activity": 4.733425, "balance": 4.400837, "dry_up": 3.28818, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050289, "annualized_volatility": 0.326835, "from_high_reference": -0.206083, "from_low_reference": 0.250596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.529318, "fair_value_reference": 12.586072, "structural_low": 12.006555, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.025308, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": 0.009767, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.174899, "worst_return": -0.09625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.099078, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.014535, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.198473, "worst_return": -0.080805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.049081, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.049884, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.261256, "worst_return": 0.040621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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12.729938, 13.006255, 13.734361, 14.346471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.673585, "volume": 63500, "typical_volume": 346950.0, "trend": 14.876893, "fair_value": 12.513267, "relative_strength": -16.850668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.178255, "energy": 77.270868, "activity_lines": [ 12.664134, 12.885543, 13.566766, 14.198364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.997292, "volume": 971800, "typical_volume": 386510.0, "trend": 14.815251, "fair_value": 12.522978, "relative_strength": -16.128926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.429419, "energy": 69.261115, "activity_lines": [ 12.743326, 12.86035, 13.448962, 14.077099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.850153, "volume": 1291300, "typical_volume": 428675.0, "trend": 14.736493, "fair_value": 12.530347, "relative_strength": -14.820107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.293317, "energy": 55.600263, "activity_lines": [ 12.772986, 12.830998, 13.340703, 13.950319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.88, "volume": 1269400, "typical_volume": 475035.0, "trend": 14.627559, "fair_value": 12.539732, "relative_strength": -14.504583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.671281, "energy": 45.113962, "activity_lines": [ 12.835252, 12.827252, 13.251393, 13.830545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.45, "volume": 4851100, "typical_volume": 694995.0, "trend": 14.578028, "fair_value": 12.561488, "relative_strength": -6.07423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.844985, "energy": 17.507221, "activity_lines": [ 13.399242, 13.112597, 13.323448, 13.81909 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.59, "volume": 4167000, "typical_volume": 880335.0, "trend": 14.529318, "fair_value": 12.586072, "relative_strength": -2.064721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.653985, "energy": 19.944877, "activity_lines": [ 13.872507, 13.397942, 13.410205, 13.819862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }