{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c672061-46a3-493b-b6e2-e0a9d9494fab", "symbol": "SWVL", "name": "Swvl Holdings Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.233, "architecture_energy": 30.171, "architecture_maturity": 35.714, "architecture_confidence": 91.093, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.03, "rotation_up": 19.56, "upward_expansion": 2.67, "deceleration": 49.21, "rotation_down": 49.51, "downward_expansion": 76.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.398, 1.415818, 1.491019, 1.517822 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.37, "trend_reference": 1.600023, "distance_from_trend": -0.143762, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.942969, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.652546, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.89667, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.074324, "excess_performance": -0.261778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143762, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170901, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.652546, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099572, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.458967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047999, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074324, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.385745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53075, "relative_activity": 0.418481, "balance": 1.385745, "dry_up": 0.575787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17851, "annualized_volatility": 0.508692, "from_high_reference": -0.676887, "from_low_reference": 0.053846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.600023, "fair_value_reference": 3.942969, "structural_low": 1.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.055734, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.061274, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.809395, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.248292, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.359593, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.787037, "worst_return": -0.422292, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.282197, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.345408, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 14.916667, "worst_return": -0.522427, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -49.133743, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.528709, "energy": 31.218244, "activity_lines": [ 1.433333, 1.483, 1.541632, 1.580881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.48, "volume": 68967, "typical_volume": 129383.2, "trend": 1.65944, "fair_value": 3.934604, "relative_strength": -43.904353, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.380896, "energy": 29.196394, "activity_lines": [ 1.448, 1.472909, 1.534943, 1.568315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.4, "volume": 45947, "typical_volume": 124136.65, "trend": 1.644773, "fair_value": 3.936463, "relative_strength": -44.569513, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.031261, "energy": 29.298048, "activity_lines": [ 1.429333, 1.453182, 1.521111, 1.551577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.38, "volume": 124114, "typical_volume": 127455.2, "trend": 1.62844, "fair_value": 3.938674, "relative_strength": -44.247783, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.066407, "energy": 29.300976, "activity_lines": [ 1.414667, 1.433455, 1.506137, 1.534495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.37, "volume": 53075, "typical_volume": 126827.7, "trend": 1.600023, "fair_value": 3.942969, "relative_strength": -45.89667, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.232905, "energy": 30.171337, "activity_lines": [ 1.398, 1.415818, 1.491019, 1.517822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }