{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c70c086-2222-40e3-b245-3848a3e4b6ab", "symbol": "ALMY", "name": "Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A.", "exchange": "ATH", "country": "GR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "GD.AT", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.549, "architecture_energy": 12.687, "architecture_maturity": 29.298, "architecture_confidence": 67.672, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.0, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 21.03, "deceleration": 35.59, "rotation_down": 27.96, "downward_expansion": 55.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.706667, 5.671636, 5.693414, 5.732993 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.75, "trend_reference": 5.791915, "distance_from_trend": -0.007237, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.240625, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.355932, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.552653, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035235, "excess_performance": -0.313741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007237, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015665, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.355932, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054828, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068612, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035235, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.585632, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73669, "relative_activity": 1.081486, "balance": 0.585632, "dry_up": 1.151082, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04272, "annualized_volatility": 0.309292, "from_high_reference": -0.164244, "from_low_reference": 0.233906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.791915, "fair_value_reference": 4.240625, "structural_low": 5.08, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042604, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.013011, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.124845, "worst_return": -0.100106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.030943, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013361, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.034197, "worst_return": 0.027689, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.062833, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.028138, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.062833, "worst_return": 0.062833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.758267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 5.65, "volume": 67490, "typical_volume": 70874.2, "trend": 5.815916, "fair_value": 4.210753, "relative_strength": -14.131578, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.691977, "energy": 20.524916, "activity_lines": [ 5.706, 5.659019, 5.70739, 5.747584 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 5.65, "volume": 100216, "typical_volume": 69171.5, "trend": 5.810249, "fair_value": 4.22524, "relative_strength": -14.517991, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.257621, "energy": 18.036144, "activity_lines": [ 5.695333, 5.653614, 5.694259, 5.73688 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 5.75, "volume": 73669, "typical_volume": 68118.3, "trend": 5.791915, "fair_value": 4.240625, "relative_strength": -13.552653, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.548762, "energy": 12.68711, "activity_lines": [ 5.706667, 5.671636, 5.693414, 5.732993 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }