{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c710e67-2c92-4e9f-b7b0-d46dd39f7b43", "symbol": "300771", "name": "Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.546, "architecture_energy": 29.946, "architecture_maturity": 77.778, "architecture_confidence": 85.347, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.33, "rotation_up": 26.77, "upward_expansion": 16.03, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 36.08, "downward_expansion": 66.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.3, 11.090909, 11.661118, 12.267441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.06, "trend_reference": 13.167154, "distance_from_trend": -0.084085, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.127751, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.165085, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.184588, "excess_performance": -0.191988, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019433, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184588, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.924334, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41329961, "relative_activity": 1.884373, "balance": 0.924334, "dry_up": 1.516536, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096301, "annualized_volatility": 0.364183, "from_high_reference": -0.340198, "from_low_reference": 0.220648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.167154, "fair_value_reference": 11.127751, "structural_low": 9.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.019841, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.034655, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.237978, "worst_return": -0.147213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.102994, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.063834, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.298189, "worst_return": -0.251792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073127, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.033007, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.258115, "worst_return": -0.174731, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153712, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15907, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01937, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.55964, "energy": 79.962908, "activity_lines": [ 10.782, 11.286629, 12.207419, 12.873943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.58, "volume": 24189185, "typical_volume": 20064721.05, "trend": 13.613981, "fair_value": 11.117143, "relative_strength": -21.074149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.353083, "energy": 65.360072, "activity_lines": [ 10.680667, 11.048856, 11.985486, 12.671394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.32, "volume": 30715893, "typical_volume": 19920756.2, "trend": 13.393048, "fair_value": 11.116274, "relative_strength": -22.843128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.948982, "energy": 62.604358, "activity_lines": [ 10.530667, 10.827636, 11.762078, 12.458879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.64, "volume": 36813729, "typical_volume": 20746814.3, "trend": 13.27425, "fair_value": 11.120974, "relative_strength": -11.202348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.64547, "energy": 48.023014, "activity_lines": [ 10.89, 10.906909, 11.68506, 12.345779 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.06, "volume": 41329961, "typical_volume": 21933007.35, "trend": 13.167154, "fair_value": 11.127751, "relative_strength": -12.165085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.54628, "energy": 29.946194, "activity_lines": [ 11.3, 11.090909, 11.661118, 12.267441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }