{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c7182b4-5560-47b9-8a40-7a94e13148cc", "symbol": "AEVA", "name": "Aeva Technologies, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.433, "architecture_energy": 18.35, "architecture_maturity": 58.245, "architecture_confidence": 95.744, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.01, "rotation_up": 30.72, "upward_expansion": 48.76, "deceleration": 80.85, "rotation_down": 34.5, "downward_expansion": 29.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.148, 20.639818, 20.78231, 19.400806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.62, "trend_reference": 17.742, "distance_from_trend": 0.500395, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.811404, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.713169, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 43.36383, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.146774, "excess_performance": 0.959321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.500395, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.713169, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.112152, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.433638, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.7659, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.146774, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.769529, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15179589, "relative_activity": 1.562439, "balance": 1.769529, "dry_up": 0.944533, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.25851, "annualized_volatility": 1.173411, "from_high_reference": -0.149521, "from_low_reference": 2.014723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.742, "fair_value_reference": 9.811404, "structural_low": 11.4606, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058422, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.055794, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.268223, "worst_return": -0.237537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.063203, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.119356, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.009105, "worst_return": -0.117302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.093577, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.246334, "worst_return": -0.059181, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 2.363236, 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"end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.260047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.540441, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020864, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.161664, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.240516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163357, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.095324, "energy": 22.848534, "activity_lines": [ 22.480667, 23.112, 20.687881, 18.993043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.71, "volume": 7115262, "typical_volume": 9555197.05, "trend": 17.303, "fair_value": 9.544032, "relative_strength": -6.827118, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.922745, "energy": 16.150326, "activity_lines": [ 20.374667, 22.046636, 20.516833, 18.959989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.85, "volume": 5949963, "typical_volume": 9328518.05, "trend": 17.357333, "fair_value": 9.600122, "relative_strength": -14.814635, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.949167, "energy": 14.609817, "activity_lines": [ 18.194, 20.586, 20.152214, 18.801731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.54, "volume": 8460934, "typical_volume": 9292162.45, "trend": 17.517, "fair_value": 9.675378, "relative_strength": 0.310025, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.689047, "energy": 17.310893, "activity_lines": [ 17.546, 19.716727, 20.040548, 18.813516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.62, "volume": 15179589, "typical_volume": 9715313.15, "trend": 17.742, "fair_value": 9.811404, "relative_strength": 43.36383, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.432985, "energy": 18.350107, "activity_lines": [ 20.148, 20.639818, 20.78231, 19.400806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }