{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c71fc6f-0da4-4bd3-bf73-a25a9301706c", "symbol": "JAS", "name": "Jasmine International Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.19, "architecture_energy": 51.806, "architecture_maturity": 53.519, "architecture_confidence": 83.29, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.12, "rotation_up": 13.79, "upward_expansion": 8.88, "deceleration": 41.7, "rotation_down": 67.87, "downward_expansion": 86.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.092, 1.111273, 1.120286, 1.139699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.07, "trend_reference": 1.181, "distance_from_trend": -0.093988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.75852, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.391534, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.929978, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.176923, "excess_performance": -0.369248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093988, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.391534, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2893, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021244, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.58915, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53425300, "relative_activity": 0.524636, "balance": 1.58915, "dry_up": 0.608047, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062545, "annualized_volatility": 0.402896, "from_high_reference": -0.343558, "from_low_reference": 0.009434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.181, "fair_value_reference": 1.75852, "structural_low": 1.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.342857, "directional_follow_through": 0.485714, "median_excess_return": -0.038047, "regime_survival": 0.942857, "best_return": 0.290324, "worst_return": -0.371859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.082707, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.096694, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.590551, "worst_return": -0.371287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.159664, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.22035, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.741731, "worst_return": -0.455645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138614, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.152672, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09589, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.314516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044643, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.795455, "volume": 71210100, "typical_volume": 92279775.0, "trend": 0.808485, "fair_value": 1.237893, "relative_strength": -9.640857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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1.1, "volume": 61645300, "typical_volume": 119301195.0, "trend": 1.197, "fair_value": 1.754143, "relative_strength": -30.158289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.04887, "energy": 32.102811, "activity_lines": [ 1.116, 1.130727, 1.13019, 1.154258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.09, "volume": 52055100, "typical_volume": 106396030.0, "trend": 1.188667, "fair_value": 1.756614, "relative_strength": -28.97887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.014294, "energy": 41.614361, "activity_lines": [ 1.106667, 1.122545, 1.12581, 1.147355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.07, "volume": 53425300, "typical_volume": 101833025.0, "trend": 1.181, "fair_value": 1.75852, "relative_strength": -28.929978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.189543, "energy": 51.805641, "activity_lines": [ 1.092, 1.111273, 1.120286, 1.139699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }