{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c753880-b694-401a-b25d-ed972f2b0edf", "symbol": "GRN", "name": "Green Oleo S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.361, "architecture_energy": 88.203, "architecture_maturity": 98.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.036, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 9.83, "upward_expansion": 20.02, "deceleration": 38.33, "rotation_down": 82.06, "downward_expansion": 95.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.411067, 0.444473, 0.511505, 0.550551 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.392, "trend_reference": 0.597133, "distance_from_trend": -0.34353, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.838718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.53262, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.529105, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.443972, "excess_performance": -0.614863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.34353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1043, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.53262, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279118, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.495291, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290275, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.443972, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.237148, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 313500, "relative_activity": 4.970273, "balance": 0.237148, "dry_up": 2.954816, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105181, "annualized_volatility": 0.383608, "from_high_reference": -0.533333, "from_low_reference": 0.026178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.597133, "fair_value_reference": 0.838718, "structural_low": 0.382, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.013129, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.042128, "regime_survival": 0.9375, "best_return": 0.044444, "worst_return": -0.261261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.047101, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.097647, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.112583, "worst_return": -0.111765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.052984, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.158768, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.011765, "worst_return": -0.094203, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.176471, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.424743, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.176471, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049451, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03012, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028169, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.431884, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.28, "volume": 22500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1.21, "volume": 34500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": 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"close": 0.438, "volume": 109500, "typical_volume": 47925.0, "trend": 0.606567, "fair_value": 0.843962, "relative_strength": -42.897803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.575059, "energy": 88.786291, "activity_lines": [ 0.421867, 0.464509, 0.528729, 0.564394 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.392, "volume": 313500, "typical_volume": 63075.0, "trend": 0.597133, "fair_value": 0.838718, "relative_strength": -49.529105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.361214, "energy": 88.202953, "activity_lines": [ 0.411067, 0.444473, 0.511505, 0.550551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }