{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c840228-c670-4208-87f2-285818c6c20b", "symbol": "PFFR", "name": "ETFIS SERIES TRUST I INFRACAP REIT PFD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 80.255, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.1, "architecture_energy": 37.386, "architecture_maturity": 6.496, "architecture_confidence": 73.102, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.29, "rotation_up": 52.84, "upward_expansion": 79.7, "deceleration": 50.46, "rotation_down": 16.13, "downward_expansion": 6.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.659043, 17.621363, 17.566761, 17.52167 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.618, "trend_reference": 17.509449, "distance_from_trend": 0.0062, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.47095, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.533664, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00049, "excess_performance": -0.125135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0062, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002599, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024644, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010879, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00049, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765223, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 178019, "relative_activity": 1.000827, "balance": 0.765223, "dry_up": 1.164674, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019439, "annualized_volatility": 0.06542, "from_high_reference": -0.028721, "from_low_reference": 0.047705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.509449, "fair_value_reference": 16.47095, "structural_low": 16.815808, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.004751, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.01481, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.040235, "worst_return": -0.034805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004148, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048094, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.10614, "worst_return": -0.04522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020032, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.044703, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.113476, "worst_return": -0.01773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.30696, "energy": 30.633481, "activity_lines": [ 17.629675, 17.562271, 17.509599, 17.493674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.7, "volume": 266281, "typical_volume": 177206.1, "trend": 17.505681, "fair_value": 16.424123, "relative_strength": -6.558706, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.338956, "energy": 47.543165, "activity_lines": [ 17.668831, 17.594658, 17.534742, 17.506566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.63, "volume": 247931, "typical_volume": 181180.95, "trend": 17.508216, "fair_value": 16.447512, "relative_strength": -7.650632, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.310814, "energy": 44.665501, "activity_lines": [ 17.674967, 17.611321, 17.55217, 17.514587 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.618, "volume": 178019, "typical_volume": 177871.9, "trend": 17.509449, "fair_value": 16.47095, "relative_strength": -10.533664, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.100475, "energy": 37.385531, "activity_lines": [ 17.659043, 17.621363, 17.566761, 17.52167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }