{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c9adc6f-cbe4-41fb-98b7-8a0cfca9429f", "symbol": "600115", "name": "China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.979, "architecture_energy": 55.51, "architecture_maturity": 54.801, "architecture_confidence": 91.661, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 22.84, "upward_expansion": 8.95, "deceleration": 55.03, "rotation_down": 57.78, "downward_expansion": 82.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.647333, 3.711455, 3.905905, 4.137054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.69, "trend_reference": 4.549, "distance_from_trend": -0.188833, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.158333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.112625, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.109166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.321691, "excess_performance": -0.278487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188833, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098672, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.112625, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191092, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111194, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.321691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.205502, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 786570270, "relative_activity": 0.921518, "balance": 1.205502, "dry_up": 1.000608, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080884, "annualized_volatility": 0.428183, "from_high_reference": -0.430556, "from_low_reference": 0.066474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.549, "fair_value_reference": 4.158333, "structural_low": 3.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.00295, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000693, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.12894, "worst_return": -0.140998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.022473, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033462, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.093923, "worst_return": -0.199566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.100796, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.035891, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.183585, "worst_return": -0.135593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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3.914667, 4.023818, 4.201571, 4.499011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.66, "volume": 1118761318, "typical_volume": 903019610.05, "trend": 4.814667, "fair_value": 4.18859, "relative_strength": -21.622576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.802827, "energy": 70.335634, "activity_lines": [ 3.826, 3.939818, 4.126571, 4.421419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.51, "volume": 879882549, "typical_volume": 920480601.05, "trend": 4.760667, "fair_value": 4.180577, "relative_strength": -19.989261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.920164, "energy": 77.635197, "activity_lines": [ 3.707333, 3.840545, 4.048095, 4.337247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.54, "volume": 825091710, "typical_volume": 906571782.75, "trend": 4.686333, "fair_value": 4.171026, "relative_strength": -20.163013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.989184, "energy": 79.703863, "activity_lines": [ 3.624667, 3.766727, 3.983048, 4.258495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.74, "volume": 924768433, "typical_volume": 879933821.4, "trend": 4.626, "fair_value": 4.164808, "relative_strength": -15.886304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.945565, "energy": 61.571966, "activity_lines": [ 3.634, 3.74, 3.944571, 4.197441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.69, "volume": 786570270, "typical_volume": 853559651.0, "trend": 4.549, "fair_value": 4.158333, "relative_strength": -19.109166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.979254, "energy": 55.509782, "activity_lines": [ 3.647333, 3.711455, 3.905905, 4.137054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }