{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0c9f8294-3714-4895-8fbf-aaa6cd5026e3", "symbol": "VPLAY-B", "name": "Viaplay Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.257, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.95, "architecture_energy": 7.395, "architecture_maturity": 18.952, "architecture_confidence": 68.592, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.96, "rotation_up": 29.96, "upward_expansion": 29.03, "deceleration": 56.81, "rotation_down": 28.47, "downward_expansion": 21.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.355467, 1.334091, 1.389695, 1.380451 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.389, "trend_reference": 1.3409, "distance_from_trend": 0.035871, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.939221, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.283733, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.131412, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117458, "excess_performance": 0.055963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035871, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12156, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.283733, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.376742, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250268, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117458, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.207802, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26636174, "relative_activity": 0.487422, "balance": 2.207802, "dry_up": 0.827235, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107825, "annualized_volatility": 0.590569, "from_high_reference": -0.217465, "from_low_reference": 0.60578 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.3409, "fair_value_reference": 1.939221, "structural_low": 0.8742, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.119929, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.043157, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.306655, "worst_return": -0.736735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.178237, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.123228, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.85274, "worst_return": -0.780816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.276033, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.183701, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.910311, "worst_return": -0.902449, "sufficient": 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.312284, "energy": 34.438612, "activity_lines": [ 1.2624, 1.373691, 1.401233, 1.364837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.385, "volume": 61229408, "typical_volume": 66800819.0, "trend": 1.29646, "fair_value": 2.208926, "relative_strength": 5.518307, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.527097, "energy": 25.366071, "activity_lines": [ 1.290667, 1.363745, 1.400662, 1.371643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.318, "volume": 63671643, "typical_volume": 66450233.05, "trend": 1.310193, "fair_value": 2.122648, "relative_strength": -1.522727, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.846312, "energy": 22.106507, "activity_lines": [ 1.303133, 1.343109, 1.39354, 1.373033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.361, "volume": 29286712, "typical_volume": 63284181.25, "trend": 1.324833, "fair_value": 2.034855, "relative_strength": -0.066532, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.053992, "energy": 10.032649, "activity_lines": [ 1.329467, 1.333782, 1.390333, 1.376311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.389, "volume": 26636174, "typical_volume": 54647059.4, "trend": 1.3409, "fair_value": 1.939221, "relative_strength": -0.131412, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.949999, "energy": 7.394926, "activity_lines": [ 1.355467, 1.334091, 1.389695, 1.380451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }