{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ca40052-d3e1-42e3-8409-9a7fc6edd2c9", "symbol": "UCC", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.338, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.534, "architecture_energy": 18.086, "architecture_maturity": 26.624, "architecture_confidence": 68.341, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.05, "rotation_up": 16.66, "upward_expansion": 10.73, "deceleration": 50.25, "rotation_down": 41.42, "downward_expansion": 65.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.601873, 46.641973, 47.381751, 47.312636 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 49.5055, "trend_reference": 47.933576, "distance_from_trend": 0.032794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.26824, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171222, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.100893, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013478, "excess_performance": -0.139103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032794, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034837, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.171222, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068309, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111009, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013478, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.070699, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36268, "relative_activity": 1.677618, "balance": 1.070699, "dry_up": 1.257103, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074934, "annualized_volatility": 0.429843, "from_high_reference": -0.128653, "from_low_reference": 0.238876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.933576, "fair_value_reference": 42.26824, "structural_low": 39.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.039465, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.043493, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.175633, "worst_return": -0.182206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.058853, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003651, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.468584, "worst_return": -0.217144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.224709, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.073693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.667531, "worst_return": -0.539527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09283, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.313744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005254, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", 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21.683865, "activity_lines": [ 47.145727, 47.904537, 47.684985, 48.0585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.8489, "volume": 10003, "typical_volume": 19786.4, "trend": 48.996502, "fair_value": 41.952994, "relative_strength": -13.186933, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.880037, "energy": 18.957734, "activity_lines": [ 47.410593, 47.789736, 47.742577, 47.973281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.3618, "volume": 9198, "typical_volume": 19894.5, "trend": 48.740211, "fair_value": 42.034062, "relative_strength": -14.280301, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.467252, "energy": 26.98903, "activity_lines": [ 47.079087, 47.437529, 47.667299, 47.803301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.4827, "volume": 31922, "typical_volume": 20824.7, "trend": 48.310067, "fair_value": 42.079783, "relative_strength": -22.450014, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.798783, "energy": 54.815613, "activity_lines": [ 45.192387, 46.278555, 47.14054, 47.335074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.62, "volume": 31320, "typical_volume": 20996.65, "trend": 48.163223, "fair_value": 42.162223, "relative_strength": -13.584913, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.029018, "energy": 41.641438, "activity_lines": [ 45.448213, 46.168095, 47.129708, 47.226038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.5055, "volume": 36268, "typical_volume": 21618.75, "trend": 47.933576, "fair_value": 42.26824, "relative_strength": -11.100893, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.534104, "energy": 18.086316, "activity_lines": [ 46.601873, 46.641973, 47.381751, 47.312636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }