{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ca4cac4-e716-472a-af6c-e2982ce14822", "symbol": "XOM", "name": "Exxon Mobil Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.896, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.924, "architecture_energy": 30.698, "architecture_maturity": 17.944, "architecture_confidence": 72.42, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.89, "rotation_up": 63.87, "upward_expansion": 48.3, "deceleration": 45.22, "rotation_down": 19.03, "downward_expansion": 11.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 152.758667, 147.975636, 147.764893, 148.757618 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 153.04, "trend_reference": 148.175282, "distance_from_trend": 0.032831, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 114.091662, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.341378, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.490709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.040566, "excess_performance": -0.085059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032831, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069493, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.341378, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032554, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024907, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.767251, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71442515, "relative_activity": 0.829601, "balance": 0.767251, "dry_up": 0.848811, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060016, "annualized_volatility": 0.306127, "from_high_reference": -0.126817, "from_low_reference": 0.496232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 148.175282, "fair_value_reference": 114.091662, "structural_low": 134.95, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.058774, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.082357, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081783, "worst_return": 0.035765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.047995, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.090892, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011496, "worst_return": -0.084495, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.017649, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.143279, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015044, "worst_return": -0.050341, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"mixed", "direction": 16.832776, "energy": 11.632445, "activity_lines": [ 146.766667, 144.688, 146.894811, 147.771674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 155.44, "volume": 73132306, "typical_volume": 89764574.75, "trend": 147.172542, "fair_value": 113.759004, "relative_strength": 8.115469, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.166797, "energy": 23.152247, "activity_lines": [ 150.792667, 146.554727, 147.444927, 148.379072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 153.04, "volume": 71442515, "typical_volume": 86116709.45, "trend": 148.175282, "fair_value": 114.091662, "relative_strength": 2.490709, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.924205, "energy": 30.698003, "activity_lines": [ 152.758667, 147.975636, 147.764893, 148.757618 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }