{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ca7adab-eb16-46b0-af13-a38abfacbfb3", "symbol": "RIOL", "name": "Amundi MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 84.091, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.224, "architecture_energy": 22.361, "architecture_maturity": 20.777, "architecture_confidence": 56.537, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.58, "rotation_up": 33.55, "upward_expansion": 20.42, "deceleration": 42.08, "rotation_down": 24.19, "downward_expansion": 54.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 2171.066667, 2152.781818, 2171.508333, 2193.69914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2139.25, "trend_reference": 2205.078333, "distance_from_trend": -0.029853, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1771.95609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.798849, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027945, "excess_performance": -0.07918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029853, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033721, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186169, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027945, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440122, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32921, "relative_activity": 0.868229, "balance": 0.440122, "dry_up": 0.963179, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033791, "annualized_volatility": 0.208233, "from_high_reference": -0.146349, "from_low_reference": 0.357392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2205.078333, "fair_value_reference": 1771.95609, "structural_low": 2055.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.003995, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.005449, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.074759, "worst_return": -0.102205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025757, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.046798, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.113626, "worst_return": -0.106371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.092149, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.059811, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.164229, 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[ 2134.35, 2123.309091, 2179.878571, 2195.006021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2196.0, "volume": 24870, "typical_volume": 37431.45, "trend": 2189.714998, "fair_value": 1766.063142, "relative_strength": 1.808641, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.668056, "energy": 13.108998, "activity_lines": [ 2158.066667, 2136.018182, 2178.425, 2196.094946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2213.25, "volume": 40454, "typical_volume": 38121.5, "trend": 2199.919999, "fair_value": 1769.119872, "relative_strength": 1.058869, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.713747, "energy": 21.965608, "activity_lines": [ 2179.666667, 2151.495455, 2178.6, 2197.613333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2139.25, "volume": 32921, "typical_volume": 37917.4, "trend": 2205.078333, "fair_value": 1771.95609, "relative_strength": -2.798849, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.223853, "energy": 22.361219, "activity_lines": [ 2171.066667, 2152.781818, 2171.508333, 2193.69914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }