{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ca898ae-60ba-4efb-8461-b2eae73d0378", "symbol": "LUC", "name": "Lucara Diamond Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.017, "architecture_energy": 59.531, "architecture_maturity": 80.835, "architecture_confidence": 91.922, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.26, "rotation_up": 29.5, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 60.34, "rotation_down": 50.19, "downward_expansion": 80.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.161333, 0.161455, 0.179619, 0.199204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.16, "trend_reference": 0.222333, "distance_from_trend": -0.28036, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.318462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.497585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.784623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.453755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.28036, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047143, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.497585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202139, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.327846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.261583, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.242325, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3100300, "relative_activity": 2.468578, "balance": 0.242325, "dry_up": 1.971288, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105769, "annualized_volatility": 0.580377, "from_high_reference": -0.542857, "from_low_reference": 0.066667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.222333, "fair_value_reference": 0.318462, "structural_low": 0.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.023314, "positive_rate": 0.305556, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.039093, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.469388, "worst_return": -0.324324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.057556, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.078777, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.645161, "worst_return": -0.361111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.087646, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.170942, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.388889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.229414, "energy": 61.691825, "activity_lines": [ 0.164667, 0.167273, 0.194381, 0.211957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.16, "volume": 2272700, "typical_volume": 1165535.0, "trend": 0.226, "fair_value": 0.321154, "relative_strength": -32.423882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.526137, "energy": 61.066225, "activity_lines": [ 0.164, 0.164182, 0.188905, 0.207613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.16, "volume": 2379900, "typical_volume": 1226275.0, "trend": 0.224333, "fair_value": 0.319808, "relative_strength": -31.292925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.745419, "energy": 58.062072, "activity_lines": [ 0.162667, 0.162182, 0.184, 0.203355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.16, "volume": 3100300, "typical_volume": 1255905.0, "trend": 0.222333, "fair_value": 0.318462, "relative_strength": -32.784623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.017317, "energy": 59.530521, "activity_lines": [ 0.161333, 0.161455, 0.179619, 0.199204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }